Meh. A KK hand.

[Entity]

Villain is TAG, of course. Haven't seen or heard much from him. Seems to be another $3/6 multitabler who is playing too tightly and not using much imagination. Stats have him pegged at 15/8 but I haven't seen him have a showdown yet.

I raise KK (suits unimportant) UTG. Folded to him, he 3-bets in the BB. I cap -- I don't think he's the sort where calling to disguise will be incredibly valuable in terms of postflop extraction.

Flop is AQ4 rainbow. He checks. What's your plan for the hand?

Rob

[cold_cash]

I would probably bet the flop, check behind on the turn, and call if he bets the river. I assume he's 3-betting JJ and TT here. I'm also assuming he didn't 3-bet with any hand that will give him a gut-shot. If he checkraises the flop I think you can fold.

If you have him drawing to a two-outer you don't want him to fold, and if you're doing the drawing just get there as quickly as you can. Also, it wouldn't kill me if I didn't get to show this down.

[DMBFan23]

bet flop for sure, turbo muck to a checkraise, and I'm probably done putting money into the pot if he calls. I dont think he has 4/5 outs here, and I really don't think he calls the flop with TT/JJ

EDIT to add: I think betting the flop is good even though it's WA/WB because he may bluff the turn if we check the flop but is less likely to bluff the river IMO if we check the turn.

[ArturiusX]

Tell him its your birthday, and that he should laydown his rockets for you [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Nick C]

The range I'm about to assign to BB may be too tight, but let's say it's AA-TT and AK. In that case, there are 12 hand combinations you're beating, 18 combinations you're losing to, and 1 you're tied with. Start throwing in hands like 99-77 and AQs and AJs and maybe AQ, and things get murkier, since we can't be sure which hands to add. Anyway, since you say he's predictable, I'm thinking maybe the AA-TT plus AK range may be about right.

All right, so that's a starting point, but I'm not sure where to go with it.

With JJ/TT, there's a good chance he'll fold to a flop bet. If so, this isn't necessarily such a tragedy, because we're going to have trouble winning many more bets from those hands anyway, and we'd rather not give infinite odds if he's not putting any more money in unimproved. Also, if we check behind on the turn, will BB bet the turn with JJ/TT often enough for us to actually call? I don't know. He might bet JJ/TT rarely enough that a turn call is unprofitable.

Hmm. I think I like a flop bet. If checkraised, I'd fold.

If he calls the flop bet, I'm worried, but is our straightforward opponent slowplaying? Does he have top pair while also fearing a set? I think I'm with Cold Cash and DMBFan23 on checking behind on a turn blank, given the chance. I don't really expect to be bet into, but if I was, I guess maybe it's a fold?

After that, the play on a river blank is difficult. I think I'd follow Cold Cash's plan and call a bet, after my show of weakness on the turn. What I'd worry about though is simply giving back the bet I saved by not walking into (and folding to) a turn checkraise. At the same time, though, checking behind on the turn does invite BB to take a stab at the river. Edit: Ugh. But how often would he still be in the hand with something you beat, on that board, after your flop bet and preflop cap? I don't know. In any case, though, I'm pretty sure what I'd actually do is call.

[littlejohn]

One thing that doesn't get discussed much is what does he think of you?

For my part, if I know I'm playing a TAG and I'm OOP, I will frequently checkraise this flop without an ace to bluff. If I just get called then I bet the turn and my losing JJ can take down KK.

So for me, it might matter if you know or think you know what he thinks about you. I don't know if I'm any good at heads up play though...so that should at least factor into this conversation.

But if hero gets checkraised and 3 bets, then gets checked to on the turn he can check and possibly induce a second bluff on the river - or at least will have gotten to the river for 2 BB's (1 extra full on flop plus one on river).

I'm not sure how to calculate odds on this since I'm not sure what my fold equity is. But to me it's an example of thinking to the second level anyway, and hero could think to the third level and play back.

When I do this (hero) and win I feel like I out-thinked my thinking friend, when he turns over AK and I lose I feel like an idiot.

But for me just laying down to a flop CR to a thinking player is sacrificing too much.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably bet the flop, check behind on the turn,

[/ QUOTE ]

Do we really think this will usually get 1.5BB out of JJ or TT, assuming no other broadway cards fall on the turn?

Rob

[cold_cash]

I'm not sure I'm following you.

If you're winning I don't know if there's anything you can do to win any chips.

Are you wanting to check the flop through?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I'm following you.

If you're winning I don't know if there's anything you can do to win any chips.

Are you wanting to check the flop through?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, what I'm wondering is what a decent, but not great, TAG can put me on. I don't want to give a worse hand a chance to fold, but there aren't many worse hands out there.

Obviously if I bet I'm folding to a checkraise pretty quickly, and that could let me off the hook pretty easily, but also forfeits a ~5% chance of spiking a set which will usually be a winner.

I don't know if he'd desperation-bet TT or JJ if I check the flop, but I can't rule that out.

I seriously considered checking and folding to a turn bet, but without the knowledge of how he'd play JJ/TT, I didn't want to do that. I don't think my hand is good very often when he bets the turn, but I don't know if the combination of being good sometimes, spiking a K sometimes and getting to take a note works out.

Rob

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
The range I'm about to assign to BB may be too tight, but let's say it's AA-TT and AK. In that case, there are 12 hand combinations you're beating, 18 combinations you're losing to, and 1 you're tied with. Start throwing in hands like 99-77 and AQs and AJs and maybe AQ, and things get murkier, since we can't be sure which hands to add. Anyway, since you say he's predictable, I'm thinking maybe the AA-TT plus AK range may be about right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh. I did this completely wrong. With the AA-TT plus AK range, you're only losing to 12 hand combinations, since you hold two kings.

Throw in other aces as 3-betting hands and/or subtract TT and the situation starts looking bleaker, but now I'm thinking there is a decent chance you're ahead on the flop.