Value bet this river?

[veganmav]

CO is 23/1/0.45 after 150 hands
UTG is 45/14/0.8 after 300 hands
MP2 is 58/5/0.45 after 100 hands

Now here is the thing, i saw MP2 do this limp raise from Middle position before, he capped it, to build a big pot, with his 53 suited. It was multiway he limped and it was 2 more back to him so he just capped it. I see him 3-bet it here, and I figure he isn't limp raising aces, because UTG had already called before him, and this MP2 guy isa pretty bezerko action monkey.

I figure with my preflop cap, I might be able to get the SB and/or UTG to fold which would greatly improve my chances of winning UI, not to metion, I don't think MP2 has much.


Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed)
Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (21 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (13 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, UTG calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

River: (17 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero..?

So the flop/turn looks standard to me.
Preflop what do you think?
And I especialy wanna know about the river.
Can you find a value bet here?
Seing as how the CO, and UTG are on the passive side, I'm afraid that one of them hit something like AJ, KJ, QJ, J9, or evern J8, and I also think although it's unlikely, it is POSSIBLE that someone has a 5. Honestly I'm not even rulling out something like QQ here. I don't wanna get check-raised, or give more chips to a passive jack.

ok, so what do you think?

[DDBeast]

I wouldn't cap pf, but with that kind of action pf I would probably check behind the riv. With 3 other people it's too likely a better hand is out there, especially if they're passve.

[ihardlyknowher]

I would bet the river. Given you opponents' aggression factors, you can fold to a river c/r. You may get called by a 7, 88, 99, or even worse.

[hicherbie]

the pot is huge. dont worry about higher pps or a jack and value bet. id also call a cr.

rest of the hand looks good.

[veganmav]

Am I a pansy if I checked this? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

BET. You're good here enough of the time to make avalue bet correct. BET.

i might check too, then kick myself because i could have gotten another bet from A-8....