Laydown early in NL tourney

[Lance]

3rd round of a $60+$5 buyin NL tourney with about 15 tables. Start with T2500, I have about T3900, player on my immediate right has about T3700. He has not been playing many hands and seems solid.

25-50 blinds, 10 handed
Fold, fold, player to my right (PTMR) makes it T250.
I have QhQd and make it T500.
Everyone folds to PTMR, who calls.
Preflop Pot: T1075

Q1. Should I have raised more?


Flop: 10 7 3, no flush draw
PTMR checks
I bet T500
PTMR immediately goes all in.

The pot is about T4800 an I have to call T2700, which would leave me T200. I figure I'm getting better than 5:3, so I have to win around 35% of the time to justify the call.

6 ways he can have AA, 6 ways he can have KK, 3 ways he can have TT, 3 ways he can have 77. I don't see him raising 89 or 33 before the flop from mid-early position.

6 ways he can have JJ. 16 ways he can have AK, but that's a pretty strange play. One way he could have QQ to tie.

So 18 ways I am drawing extremely thin versus 6 ways I am ahead and one way we split.

The way he played it seems consistent with the way he'd play TT or AA, maybe 77 and KK too. Given he seems on the tight side and the checkraise indicates strength, I figure I am losing more than 65% of these hands and I fold.

Q2: Too tight?

[ QUOTE ]
3rd round of a $60+$5 buyin NL tourney with about 15 tables. Start with T2500, I have about T3900, player on my immediate right has about T3700. He has not been playing many hands and seems solid.

25-50 blinds, 10 handed
Fold, fold, player to my right (PTMR) makes it T250.
I have QhQd and make it T500.
Everyone folds to PTMR, who calls.
Preflop Pot: T1075

Q1. Should I have raised more?


Flop: 10 7 3, no flush draw
PTMR checks
I bet T500
PTMR immediately goes all in.

The pot is about T4800 an I have to call T2700, which would leave me T200. I figure I'm getting better than 5:3, so I have to win around 35% of the time to justify the call.

6 ways he can have AA, 6 ways he can have KK, 3 ways he can have TT, 3 ways he can have 77. I don't see him raising 89 or 33 before the flop from mid-early position.

6 ways he can have JJ. 16 ways he can have AK, but that's a pretty strange play. One way he could have QQ to tie.

So 18 ways I am drawing extremely thin versus 6 ways I am ahead and one way we split.

The way he played it seems consistent with the way he'd play TT or AA, maybe 77 and KK too. Given he seems on the tight side and the checkraise indicates strength, I figure I am losing more than 65% of these hands and I fold.

Q2: Too tight?

[/ QUOTE ]


I think he has either JJ or A10 for a couple of reasons. If he seemed solid I think he would of reraised preflop with AA or KK being out of position (I would have reraised with QQ to 750 probably but 500 is not a bad play).

Under that assumption the hands we fear after the flop are the sets: 10,10/7,7/3,3. After you made a standard cont. bet on the flop he could think you have anything, possibly nothing. But if he had the set I'd imagine he'd smooth call here seeing there is no flush draw, no feasible str8 draw, and you are heads up (better conditions for slow play).

So I really think he has something like JJ, A10, or K10s maybe. Tight fold in my eyes but it's not out of the question thinking your beat, plus it's early in the tourny so only go all the way if you're very sure you've got the best hand.

[JustPlayingSmart]

Raise more preflop. I would go to T800.

You say this guy seems solid, but you act like he's a rock. He has to have more hands than TT-AA to make this play. I'm not saying it's not likely you're beat here, but I think people might make this play with 88-99, and AT. If he raised AT preflop, you priced him in to call your reraise. Many people would check/raise all in on a ten high flop in this spot. I don't play B&M but online I'm pretty sure this is a call.