Fold it here? Overpair JJ vs. all-in raise and call

bigredlemon · #1 02-13-2005, 01:24 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (9 handed) converter

Button (t510)
SB (t1685)
BB (t1125)
Hero (t735)
UTG+1 (t640)
MP1 (t950)
MP2 (t690)
MP3 (t1115)
CO (t550)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises to t65, UTG+1 calls t65, 1 fold, MP2 calls t65, 5 folds.

Flop: (t217.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets 175, UTG+1 raises to 575 all in. MP2 calls. Hero raises to 670 all in. MP2 calls 50 all in.

Final Pot: t217.50

I probably used up most of my timebank thinking about whether to call or not. I raised PF and bet on a rag flop, which screams overpair.

His re-raise all in screams a set, or perhaps he was semi-bluffing a open-straight /w backdoorflush and/or overcards. (I'd be behind if that was the case, and my J is likely blocking his draws so it's more likely to be a semibluff with QKs than JQs. MP2 is flat calling an all in, and putting himself basically all in. It's unlikely that both have nothing, so I should probably fold here?

If I fold, I still have enough to play but will need to start gambling one level before anyone else, and that could be very risky. If I'm wrong, and call, I basically lose the tourney barring miracles. If I'm right and call, I have a very good shot of winning the the whole tourney, but also a good shot of getting outdrawn.

bigredlemon · #2 02-13-2005, 01:25 PM

I ran some sims and they came back as follows:

Code:<hr /><pre>
pokenum -h jh js - jd qd - ts as -- td 3s 9h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 3s Td 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jh 323 35.77 558 61.79 22 2.44 0.370
Qd Jd 374 41.42 507 56.15 22 2.44 0.426
As Ts 184 20.38 719 79.62 0 0.00 0.204

pokenum -h jh js - qh qd - 7s 8h -- td 3s 9h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 3s Td 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jh 42 4.65 861 95.35 0 0.00 0.047
Qd Qh 651 72.09 252 27.91 0 0.00 0.721
7s 8h 210 23.26 693 76.74 0 0.00 0.233

pokenum -h js jh - qd kd - 7h 8h -- td 3s 9h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 3s Td 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jh 451 49.94 452 50.06 0 0.00 0.499
Kd Qd 272 30.12 631 69.88 0 0.00 0.301
8h 7h 180 19.93 723 80.07 0 0.00 0.199

Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 3s Td 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jh 550 60.91 325 35.99 28 3.10 0.625
Ks Jc 252 27.91 623 68.99 28 3.10 0.295
5d 5h 73 8.08 830 91.92 0 0.00 0.081

pokenum -h jh js - 4d 4h - kd th -- td 3s 9h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 3s Td 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jh 648 71.76 255 28.24 0 0.00 0.718
4d 4h 79 8.75 824 91.25 0 0.00 0.087
Kd Th 176 19.49 727 80.51 0 0.00 0.195
</pre><hr />

 one of them is what happened

spentrent · #3 02-13-2005, 01:32 PM

I fold to the flop reraise. UTG *miiiight* think you're getting cute with AK and raise a pair of tens, but MP2's got at least QQ.

USS Gut Shot · #4 02-13-2005, 01:37 PM

I would lean towards folding. If you are beat you are in big trouble. If you have the best hand, you will probably be lucky to win half the time. Of course you would have +EV, but get knocked out half the time.

I would probably call quickly if it was heads up and take my chances.

KenProspero · #5 02-13-2005, 01:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm wrong, and call, I basically lose the tourney barring miracles. If I'm right and call, I have a very good shot of winning the the whole tourney, but also a good shot of getting outdrawn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, that's certainly right.

Where I disagree with you is that his bet screams a set. What about, say ATs.

That being said, do you know anything about villian? Does he bluff? Is he a rock? Or your you on your own.

If you don't have a read -- go with your gut. Many times in these situations, I decide quickly that I've done all the valid analysis I think I can, and all that's left is to just live or die with a decision.

FWIW, my gut reaction was to go for it -- you're about 2-1 in pot odds, and though you're not out of it, being down to 500 chips or so after folding isn't the best.

bigredlemon · #6 02-13-2005, 02:00 PM

No real reads, but there's usually quite a bit of PF action at the table so far, so QQ and KK would likely have re-raised. AA is the only overpair that I considered likely.

UTG+1 has limped in twice so far, once folded on flop, and once checked it down with a pair of fives. Haven't noticed much from MP.

I followed my gut and ended up calling. Barring gut reads, I'd want to lay this down. I felt I was most likely against a set and a draw.

I think it's a set because:
I raised PF, so I'm likely betting either a made hand or else a draw to a top pair. I'm not going to be raising PF with JQ, and I'm not betting top set that aggressively. A lower set would want to re-raise me all to kick out MP, who might have called with JQs hoping to hit big. A low set would want to kick out any straight draws and go heads up with me, as dead money. It'll be 95% chance to win 1000 vs 70% chance to win 1500. The latter is slightly more EV, but the former is clearly the best move in an SNG. UTG's limp/call definetly looks like a low pair. A limper /w a weak ace or two braodways would probably fold to a raise fearing being dominated. He's also shown to be willing to play low pairs once before. So that's why I think it's most likely a set if he has it. I can't see him limping in with AT or KT, then calling a medium raise.

Even if I'm beat, i'm not dead. I still have a backdoor straight draw, amd a draw to the nut quads on the river.

spentrent · #7 02-13-2005, 02:05 PM

By "at least QQ" I mean to include baby sets.

AA suited · #8 02-13-2005, 07:41 PM

like the above poster said, utg+1 may have AT and bet tptk for all it's worth.

MP2 cold calling is what worries me. even at 50+5, there are still bad players. a cold call all-in could still mean an oesd at lvl 1 blinds.

but more likely, your jj are beaten. he has qq or a set.

it's a tough lay down because you may have the best hand. but it's lvl 1. why risk it on an overpair this early vs an all-in and a cold call?

The Yugoslavian · #9 02-13-2005, 08:33 PM

I don't like your preflop raise.

I like your flop bet okay, although I probably would bet a bit lower and/or check-raised here or folded to tons of action.

I don't like your flop call after someone comes over the top of you and the other guy calls.

Yugoslav