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Old 11-13-2002, 04:17 AM
balt999 balt999 is offline
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Default Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice

This happened to me at the Mirage on sunday...I was dealt 6c3h in successive hands?? What are the chances of that happening??

Sorry, guys, I mucked both preflop [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]
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  #2  
Old 11-13-2002, 04:25 AM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Default Re: Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice

1 in 52*51/2 = 1 in 1326.
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  #3  
Old 11-13-2002, 06:02 AM
Dynasty Dynasty is offline
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Default Re: Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice

It happens a lot. I'm still waiting for 3 in a row. I have gotten the same hand 3 times within an hour recently

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Old 11-13-2002, 11:28 AM
marbles marbles is offline
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Default Re: Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice

"1 in 52*51/2 = 1 in 1326."
I concur. Note that if you play 1000 hands (which doesn't take all that long, particularly if you're an online player), it most likely WILL happen at least once (p=.53).
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Old 11-13-2002, 12:57 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Default Re: Probabilit of Getting the Exact same hand twice

And if you play 1326 hands, it will happen 63.2% of the time which is approximately
1 - 1/e since (n-1)/n is approximately 1/e for large n.
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  #6  
Old 11-13-2002, 02:39 PM
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Default what\'s the approximation???

Bruce,
what's the relationship you're using? I'd just like to know, since it's obviously not (n-1)/n approx 1/e for large n.
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Old 11-13-2002, 03:34 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Default Re: what\'s the approximation???

Oops, sorry. Make that [(n-1)/n]^n = 1/e for large n. This is the probability of something not happening in 1/p tries if the probability of it happening each try is p. So in this case we have (1325/1326)^1326 = 36.8% = probability of not getting 2 in a row in 1326 tries.
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  #8  
Old 11-17-2002, 02:01 PM
King_J King_J is offline
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Default 3 in a row

Happend to my friend when he was playing on true poker.
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