Mathematical Justification for Loose-Aggressive Play

[Michael C.]

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it has little to do with math. the issue is that he is going to outplay you on the flop and if he can do that the cards dont matter.

Pat

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That's completely wrong. In fact one reason Gus will call when he knows is behind is because he can figure out the mathamatically based odds and the EV of his hand better than his opponents. Thus a lot of the time they are making mathamatical mistakes, and that's what he makes his money off of (ala Sklansky's fundamental theory of poker). The fact that he can bluff and read hands is of course part of it, but figure out after the fact when he hits his "lucky" hands, and in almost every case the math justified it. I thought the hand in an earlier PSI where Howard Lederer knocked Gus off was very enlightining. Gus openly mused "I could be drawing dead, but I could be good now, although it's unlikely, or I could need another club." You could just see him going over all the possible holdings he thought Howard could have, figuring the percentages, and then figuring if the odds justified the call. Howard understood too and before Gus turned it over he said "no, you're not good now, but your flush is." After the hand in the interview Gus said that he thought his play was correct based on the possible range of hands Howard would play there. And that told me a LOT about how Gus thinks/plays, and why he is so good.

[USS Gut Shot]

now that's a nice post!

did she make Skalansky's top ten?