Tough spot with AA on the turn.

[Jezebel]

Live 20/40. I have played hundreds of hours with this particular lineup.

Villan open limps UTG and it is folded to me on the button. I raise with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and it is folded back to the villan who calls.

Flop comes 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

My opponent checks, I bet and he calls.

Turn brings a 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and my opponent checks. As he checks I pick up a tell that he is planning on checkraising if I bet. The only hands that this particular opponent will checkraise the turn with here are a made flush, a set OR a flush draw regardless of how big. If I check it through there is a high likelyhood that he will bet the river.
What is my best line? Bet and call down, or check it through and hopefully induce a bluff on the river if a blank falls.

Thanks for your input.

[King_J]

I would check turn and call down on the river. I think he has two pair or better too often for you to bet. I dont know the math but I think this decision aint close at all.

[Kevin J]

Two pair?

[Ponks]

Sevens and two's I think [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Ponks

[steveyz]

Against opponents who will semi-bluff check-raise here with a flush draw with the "correct" frequency, I think checking through and calling a river bet is correct. If he will bluff too much in this spot, betting and calling down is the best play.
You said that the only hands your opp will c/r with there is a made flush, set, or any flush draw. However, does that mean that any time he has those 3 types of hand, he will be check-raising? If so, using baynesian analysis, when he check-raises it will be a flush draw a majority of time and therefore you should bet and call down. However, I doubt your opponent will all c/r here with a flush draw, he'd be bluffing way too much.

[elysium]

hi jez

the pick-up on the tell is useless. your opponent may be indicating that he will check-raise, and he may want to encourage you to bet because he may have misread how strong you are and thinks that you might fold a weak kicker, or he may think that he has the lead. you could also be wrong. he might not want to check-raise. or he might have picked up a nut-draw.

this opponent has check-raised you heads-up in the past with nothing but a draw picked up on the turn. you must bet. even if you are sure that you will be check-raised, you still must bet. this opponent will bet into you heads-up on the river if you check it down and a rag hits. then, you would have to call. can you ever fold? yes. when this opponent would never check-raise you without a completed draw when a completed draw is on board. do you have that here? no.

the chance that you're wrong about the tell should give you the pot odds to always bet. you would then base your call on the check-raising habits after the check-raise, not before.