stars atlantis 5+.5 rebuy hand

[whodaman]

villian is fairly good compared to most in this tourney, and he seems to understand he needs to push a large range of hands here.
POKERSTARS GAME #2891690337: TOURNAMENT #14028948, HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL XIV (2000/4000) - 2005/10/25 - 17:57:56 (ET)
Table '14028948 22' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: whodaman13 (22090 in chips)
Seat 2: HUSTLER300 (29316 in chips)
Seat 3: monserrat (28627 in chips)
Seat 4: TCN2TW (10720 in chips)
Seat 5: Ilost1again (31570 in chips)
Seat 6: stikinitinu (25344 in chips)
Seat 7: Freak 302 (4435 in chips)
Seat 8: The Coon (16844 in chips)
Seat 9: macballer (23641 in chips)
whodaman13: posts the ante 200
HUSTLER300: posts the ante 200
monserrat: posts the ante 200
TCN2TW: posts the ante 200
Ilost1again: posts the ante 200
stikinitinu: posts the ante 200
Freak 302: posts the ante 200
The Coon: posts the ante 200
macballer: posts the ante 200
whodaman13: posts small blind 2000
HUSTLER300: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to whodaman13 [Qs Ts]
monserrat: folds
TCN2TW: raises 6520 to 10520 and is all-in
Ilost1again: folds
stikinitinu: folds
Freak 302: folds
The Coon: folds
macballer: folds
whodaman13: raises 11370 to 21890 and is all-in

did i make the right move here? if BB folds the pot is offering me over blah i messed up calculation
also top 21 win seats in the DS there were 40 left and i had a slightly below average stack.
I think winning this hands lets me fold the rest of the way.

[Exitonly]

This really depends on the number of people left and your position.

I dont think it's a good move, you're in the SB you have a whole orbit to find your own spots, W/ fold equity.

Yea, i've convinced myself now, i don't like it at all.

[whodaman]

yea i think im a fool, i thought i was getting 3-1 but looks more like 2-1... ill stick to limit cash games

[locutus2002]

Easy push.

Hero is getting 2.15:1 in the pot and needs to be 31% in the hand.
Hero is ~45% in the hand if villain is playing: any ace, 2/3 of the Kings all pairs all broadway. (A wide range).

There is so much overlay in the pot it doesn't matter about BB who has a hand like villain's less than 25% of the time.

[Exitonly]

If you know that this is a $5r turbo satelite, then that is TERRIBLE advice, this is a fold in those.

In a standard MTT, it could be a push. Definitely not in these satelites though.

[locutus2002]

We are still quite a ways from the money. 21 players is 2 tables of 7 and one of 8 before the bubble bursts, hero is going to be in a hand at least once and this one is CEV++ ++.

It's certainly not terrible advice. It might be close, but I would be trying to resolve my situation when CEV++ opportunities presented themselves. When the blinds go up, and they will before the end of this tournament, hero will have no control over his outcome. Infact folding is terrible advice.

[Firefly]

I'd rather push with this hand then call.
In turbos i generally like to be the agressor rather then the caller.

[Exitonly]

40 players left 21 get seats.. hav eyou played these before?? There are 1 or 2 orbits left in this tournament. This may be +cEV, but definitely not +EV. Folding here and pushing anyn two the next hand if it folds to you would be better. (not suggesting that necesarily).
He'll have 18k after this hand, theres a good chancee he can fold into the money already.

[locutus2002]

Here's my quick and dirty calc.

.75 bustouts per hand (high in my opinion).
25 hands before the bubble bursts (low in my opinion)
Blinds do not rise before bubble bursts (incorrect given stalling which is inevitable)
Hero could be playing 7 handed for a while and has a lower effective M (principle based on Harrington).


Hero has M=2.3
Hero needs M=4 to be marginally safe.

[Exitonly]

Have you played these before? I dont mean to sound like a dick so don't take it that way.

.75 a hand, is probably right on, so if it's 25 hands before the buble breaks, which actually sounds kinda high, but even if it is.

But anynway, with an 18k stack, i woudln't be surprised if you get a walk in the BB when it gets to you, people don't love messing with decent sized stacks in these. and even if yodu ont get a walk, i guarantee you'll have an opportunity to steal when you have a MUCH higher rate of succeeding than you do of winning this pot w/ QT. In these you want to avoid big pots like this, and just steal blinds to hang around.