2/5 NL Borgota - Hand Analysis

#1 10-03-2005, 05:58 PM

I just got back from a fun weekend in AC and logging a good 21 hours at the 2/5 NL at Gota (broken up between two days). My final hand sunday night was a big one. Heres the setup:

New player we'll call him Baldy, sits down plays one hand bluffs a guy going all-in on river and shows an aggressive image. Other guy in concern is an arab who has shown to be tight and not getting anything anytime soon.
Baldy: $650+ Arab: $450+ Me: $550+

Preflop dealt 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG+1 call $5.

7 players limp pot $35.

Flop: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Baldy first to act bets $30, arab calls, I raise to $75, folds around to Baldy. Baldy says "You got 5-6??" stairs me down and says "I raise $250". Arab guy seems frustrated and goes all-in roughly "$450". Gets to me.... whats do you do.. all the sudden Baldy shows his hand to a friend behind him and says "This is how you misplay your hand" after the old guy goes all-in. I go into a think tank and Baldy calls time on me. What do you do? (to be continued...)

JihadOnTheRiver · #2 10-03-2005, 06:09 PM

I'm pretty sure this is a very easy push. You're not thinking of folding here are you? It seems like the Durka Durka is on a flush draw and looks like baldy probably has A5, but oh well. I push every time.

amoeba · #3 10-03-2005, 06:22 PM

having odds to fill up is good.

#4 10-06-2005, 08:42 AM

and the story continues...

Baldy calls time. I sit there and say to myself over and over, I don't think there is any possible way I can fold this hand. My thoughts and analysis on this hand was I really do believe baldy has an overpair and misplayed his hand as he doesnt look like the mindgames type and showed true disgust when the arab pushed all-in. The arabs push represented to me a flush draw because he was just tired of not getting anything.... heres how it plays out

"I'm all-in" ($550+). Baldy says "Well now Im priced to call". Flips over AA?!? Arab flips over AK diamonds, I have the best hand with a set of 4's.

Turn: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] River: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Board: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Brutal! I win that hand and I make roughly $1,100 profit. I can't believe baldy limped on the SB or BB with AA and Arab limped with AKs.

My question was my call resulted in a coin-flip for the most part between the arab and I right. He has 12 outs to improve on the flop. Turn I have 10 to improve. But replaying the hand I knew if I called baldy would call which gives me 2:1 on my money. So this is a must call right - just a bad beat.

98romaine · #5 10-06-2005, 09:04 AM

You're actually a pretty big favorite on the flop with the 3 player all in situation. Still with a good redraw on the turn. Tough hand, looks like you went with your reads which were right on but got drawn out on.

AdamBragar · #6 10-06-2005, 10:45 AM

At the borgata 2-5 game, there is no way you can fold this hand. AK with one or no diamonds could be very likely here as well as any pocket pair.

#7 10-06-2005, 11:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
At the borgata 2-5 game, there is no way you can fold this hand. AK with one or no diamonds could be very likely here as well as any pocket pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you say that? Due to the loose, aggresive, wild play at times?

Mikey · #8 10-06-2005, 11:15 AM

Lets assume you know they have you beat for sure the odds that you will hit a full house on the river are roughly 1.6 to 1, and even if they have straights your odds actually increase to maybe like 1.3 to 1.

So here you will roughly be getting 2 to 1 on your cash and you are thinking about folding...... you can't even if you know you are beat..... you have to push here.

One other thing.... and this is something the books don't tell you...... lets say you know for sure that you are beat..... but you are getting the right odds to chase but above all the money means something to you... then don't call..... keep the money and wait for a better spot as silly as it sounds.

AviD · #9 10-06-2005, 11:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
and the story continues...

Baldy calls time. I sit there and say to myself over and over, I don't think there is any possible way I can fold this hand. My thoughts and analysis on this hand was I really do believe baldy has an overpair and misplayed his hand as he doesnt look like the mindgames type and showed true disgust when the arab pushed all-in. The arabs push represented to me a flush draw because he was just tired of not getting anything.... heres how it plays out

"I'm all-in" ($550+). Baldy says "Well now Im priced to call". Flips over AA?!? Arab flips over AK diamonds, I have the best hand with a set of 4's.

Turn: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] River: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Board: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Brutal! I win that hand and I make roughly $1,100 profit. I can't believe baldy limped on the SB or BB with AA and Arab limped with AKs.

My question was my call resulted in a coin-flip for the most part between the arab and I right. He has 12 outs to improve on the flop. Turn I have 10 to improve. But replaying the hand I knew if I called baldy would call which gives me 2:1 on my money. So this is a must call right - just a bad beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused, the board is

Board: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You have 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Arab has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for the nut flush. How did you win again?

AdamBragar · #10 10-06-2005, 11:48 AM

The play is awful. Often times, 77 would get his money in here thinking he's ahead. A lot of people come to the Borgata to gamble, and that means any ace, five or 2 diamonds and they still have a chance to win. They are in.

Last time I was there, I played 2/5 when this went down. Some guy raised to 50 preflop. This other guy (who was there for the WPT), reraised to 250. A kid who was clearly an internet player (claimed to 4 table 100 dollar SNG's for a living), hems and haws on the BB and was like, who am I kidding, I'm just hollywooding, this is a must fold. He folds. Other 2 get all in. Original raiser has 77 and LP has 99. The kid looked in shock saying he had JJ (I geniunely believed him). Clearly, I still advocate the same thought proccess as you'd go over any hand, but take into account that there's a much wider range of hands at 2/5 NL. Maybe I'd compare it to .5/.10 NL on Stars.