AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max

[Bradyams]

Cappucino!

[Watain]

Hands that is worse than you but would call:

A - (k,q) kicker
Two pairs
K-10
= lets say 6 options.

Better hands than yours that would raise:
K-Q

Hands that would fold:
Busted flush draw

So, i think i would bet out. Fearing that it would get checked through with the 6 options above.

[Jaran]

I know you wanted grunches, but I thought I would point out that the one hand that a weak/tight BB might play here that makes sense is KQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I would call, not cap. If I'm right, then it's getting capped behind you anyway. MP has JT, IMO.

-Jaran

[wabe]

Yes. If Mr. KQ or 78 decided to hang around with bad odds, oh well.

[Bradyams]

[ QUOTE ]
Cappucino!

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason I'm capping is both players just woke up and are saying they have big hands. If they do in fact have big hands it will get capped behind you, and there is no way you can fold for that last bet with top set.

If they don't have as big of hands as you thought the 3bet may only get called, and you miss out on two bets.

By capping you are just putting in the inevitable 4th bet for the player who has the straight, but increasing your value for when you do have the best hand.

Hope that makes sense, I had a hard time converting that thought to words.

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
the only hands you're losing to are KQ, Q8, and 87. I could see KQ here, but more often these guys are betting two pair with JT or AT or a set which isn't quite as good as your rockets. Cap.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hi Arsis,
Agreed, JT might call down the flop and turn with this hand, but AT would have raised the flop or certainly the turn, so I think we can eliminate that. A set of 2s or Tens would have certainly raised by the turn, so we can eliminate them. Surely, pocket nines would raise the turn when it made a set, so I think we can safely eliminate that possibility. JJ making a set on the river seems possible. Unlikely that MP has it and didn't raise preflop. BB could have it and might have declined to re-raise it after I raised from the SB.

[arsixsixwy]

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed, JT might call down the flop and turn with this hand, but AT would have raised the flop or certainly the turn, so I think we can eliminate that. A set of 2s or Tens would have certainly raised by the turn, so we can eliminate them. Surely, pocket nines would raise the turn when it made a set, so I think we can safely eliminate that possibility. JJ making a set on the river seems possible. Unlikely that MP has it and didn't raise preflop. BB could have it and might have declined to re-raise it after I raised from the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I still don't buy it. As many times as I've seen people play sets and two pair slowly like they've seen on World Poker Tour, you can't wuss out on the river.

Also, just because something confusing happened on the river, that does not change the fact that you should always lead in this situation. I mean, theoretically, should you bet when you have no chance of winning? No. You can't possibly know that at this point, though, and you will win this hand most of the time.

If your question was, "should I just flat call this in the interest of keeping all three players in the hand?" then I think we could talk. I can't believe anybody was advocating folding top set on a minimally dangerous board. Talk about seeing monsters under the bed.

If you got outdrawn by a gutshot, I'm sorry. You still win this hand an overwhelming majority of the time and should not be afraid to put your money in when there are very logical other hands your opponents may hold that do not beat you.

DID I MENTION THAT YOU HAVE TOP SET AND THIS IS THE FOURTH-BEST POSSIBLE HAND? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I'm capping is both players just woke up and are saying they have big hands. If they do in fact have big hands it will get capped behind you, and there is no way you can fold for that last bet with top set.

If they don't have as big of hands as you thought the 3bet may only get called, and you miss out on two bets.

By capping you are just putting in the inevitable 4th bet for the player who has the straight, but increasing your value for when you do have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
That makes sense, Brady. So the critical decision becomes whether to call the two back to you, knowing that you might have to put in three BB to see the showdown.

Your getting 13:2 or 7.5:1 to call two against two opponents. If it gets capped, you will be getting 18:3 or 6:1 to call against two opponents.

If it were heads up, this would be a much easier decision. With two players raising, it seems to me the question is, what are the possible hands that two players made with the river Jack and what are the odds that we beat both of them? Perhaps we should guess that it will get capped half the time and split the difference between 7.5:1 and 6:1? Then say we are getting 6.75:1. Is that good enough odds to call two opponents on this board?

[McNeese72]

Grunching the first post in this string:

I'm relatively a newbie and only have been playing about 6 months and don't play above .5/1 full ring, yet and no 6 max. With that said, I'd bet the river and call if raised. But I tend to get a little tight and see monsters under the bed. :-)

[PokerBob]

How is this not an obvious bet?