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#21
05-29-2005, 03:35 PM
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Re: QQ faces AKx flop
[ QUOTE ]
During the hand I have to admit I didn't do all this thinking. But thinking about it right now, I figure that my immediate odds for the .5BB call is 8:1, and assuming I can get 1BB on the turn and river, then my implied odds is 12:1 for the .5BB call. If I discount the bdfd to 1 out, and a bdsd to 1 out, then I have 4 outs, requiring only 10.5:1 to call (I'm cheating reading off odds chart) Having said that, my analysis is probably wrong, and would appreciate it if you could help me understand why. Thanks! [/ QUOTE ] That looks like the problem. Your implied odds need to factor into account that you only get it *IF* you make your hand. So your extra 4 SB only come in 1/23 of the time. You if you include the implied odds, you're not getting all the way up to 12:1, but it's more like 8.25:1. (Estimate 1/23 as 1/20, then 4*1/20 = 1/4 = .25.) Here are a couple things to think about when trying to estimate implied odds: 1) How many players are in the pot? If it's multiway, your implied odds are higher because there are more people who can (probably will) pay you off. 2) How aggressive are your opponents? More aggressive player give higher implied odds because they don't slow down as fast. 3) How loose are your opponents? Loose players will still probably call down after you make your hand. Weak-tight players might not. 4) How hidden is your hand? A pocket pair snagging a set on the turn is well hidden, flushes are not. You can generally expect to get a little more action with a turned set than a turned flush. 5) Is it a backdoor draw? Backdoor draws *DON'T* have good implied odds because you need two cards before you hit your hand, so you might have to pay while still drawing. I hope this clarifies things a little for you. Of course, you don't really run the calculation from my other post through your head during the hand. This is the sort of thing you do when you're reviewing your hands. After a while, you get an intuition that says "that looks about right" when you play. But this takes some time to develop. 
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#24
05-29-2005, 07:23 PM
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Re: QQ faces AKx flop
First off, welcome. I'm going to bold a few things and let you think about them for a bit. I have to run, otherwise I would stay and chat.
[ QUOTE ] When you raise QQ before the flop, you are looking to remove competition, 'qualify' your opponents hands, and get more money into a pot you have a good chance to win. Preflop is when you can get the most value from your QQ. You're basically betting that you either see another Q on the flop, or A or K does not fall. You're a bit better than 1:2.08 not to see an A or K fall on the flop (or at least the ace, callers on 3 bets before the flop probably qualified an ace). You're about 1:8 to see another Q. You're the most likely one to win the pot before the flop, that's why you have to get the money into the pot before the flop, and pretty much why if you see AKx on the flop it is time to stick a fork in you, you're done. The king is debateable, but that ace pretty much dooms you to 2 outs. Don't think clubs are going to save you, because since someone is likely to have an ace or a king (or worse) if they called 3 bets before the flop. The likelihood your flush would be the best is much lower, giving you piss-poor implied odds on trying to catch the flush. You still have 2 outs. GAME OVER. INSERT COIN. [/ QUOTE ] Again, don't think I'm being negative. The purpose of the forums is to learn, so think about those things and I'll check back later tonight. Y'all can discuss, too.
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#26
05-29-2005, 07:27 PM
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Re: QQ faces AKx flop
[ QUOTE ]
I think it sounds a little weak-tight, but I agree with him on folding the flop. You'll never get a King or Ace to fold here, and he is betting into the PFR> [/ QUOTE ] There is nothing wrong with the flop fold. Remember how we were talking the other day about correct decisions, but wrong reasonings? I really have to run now.
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