Gimme your critique (Grunch it)

[mmbt0ne]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
(a) Why are we giving him credit for a boat and not just trip J's? If he had a boat he'd have had two pair (or a set) earlier and not raised it?

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It's not necessarily a matter of giving him credit for a boat. It's saying that given the chance that he has a boat, how can I make the most and lose the least.

This a classic fish line for flopping a big hand against a preflop raiser.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
(um, 2) This is a good point, but might your typical calling station not just over call this again on the river? He's done nothing but call so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think asking him to call 2 on a paired board with a 3-flush after a preflop raiser hasn't let up, and there's sudden aggression from another player is asking a lot. He will call occassionally, but I don't think he will do it often enough.

[wabe]

I play this the same way. Sucks that the board paired, and you might have lost to a boat, but I don't see another raise on the river here.

[wyoak]

I'd probably 3-bet. I think we would have heard from two pair earlier in the hand. A call is really not too bad either since BB is along and is probably calling here, but heck, he might call two anyway.
edit: actually, we may not have heard from J5 earlier in the hand. I'd still 3-bet but kick the cat when it's capped. My cat probably likes the call.

[meep_42]

3-bet the river. He'd have said something if he had 2-pair before the river, I think.

-d

[olavfo]

*Grunching*

Going for the river overcall seems the best play here. 3-betting will force out BB most of the time. We'll gain 1 bet when our hand is good (I doubt UTG will cap with only trips when there's 3 to a flush on board) and lose 1 or 2 (when UTG caps) bets when UTG has us beat.

By calling we gain an extra bet every time our hand is good without losing anything extra when UTG has a boat (assuming BB always calls of course).

olavfo

[bottomset]

I like the postflop, not sure I'd raise this preflop though its not bad

[Shillx]

It is tough to know if 3-betting the river is correct. We need to know how often he will cap with the best/worst hand, how often the other player will call another bet but not another two bets, etc. The hand looks fine.

Brad

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
It is tough to know if 3-betting the river is correct. We need to know how often he will cap with the best/worst hand, how often the other player will call another bet but not another two bets, etc. The hand looks fine.

Brad

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I actually disagree. You don't need this information. It only seems like you do.

Krishan

[meep_42]

My feeling is that we're good here about 90% of the time.

We lose 2 bets when we're no good (10%)

of the times we're good (90%):
Sometimes Villain will cap with trips (7.5% of 90%) +2 BB
Somestimes BB will cold-call (7.5% of 90%) +3 BB
BB folds, Villain calls (85% of 90%) +1 BB

(.1)(-2)+(.075)(.9)(2)+(.075)(.9)(3)+(.85)(.9)(1)
EV = -.2 + .135 + .2025 + .765 = 1.1025 BB

Or, another way (x = % our flush is good on the river)

(1-x)(-2)+.15x+.225x+.85x = 0
-2+2x+1.225x=0
3.225x = 2
x = .620

Given these percentages, we need to be good on the river a little less than 2/3s of the time to 3-bet. I think we're good here a sizable portion above that, so I rizzle.

-d

[Stinkybeaver]

3-bet river...