The EV of changing my alarm clock.

[jkkkk]

Ok so its 5am (nearly) and I start thinking about how much sleep I want, my first thought was to set it for 11am, this way i get 6 hrs of sleep, get to walk / talk with my friend on the way to town (I hate going on my jack) and I can play 1000 hands or so when I get back until I have to go to a BBQ at 4pm.

Then I realised the odds of me turning off my alarm after ~6 hrs of sleep is 90%, so theres the sleep through -EV + oversleep -EV because if I fail to wake up before 3pm (should I sleep through) the BBQ has been mucked up because I need to pop into town for beer, steak etc. I estimate the chance of this being ~20%, so maybe changing the alarm to 2pm is a better idea.

The alarm clock controls are staring me in the face, Hero...