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#11
10-13-2005, 08:32 PM
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Re: 88
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I don't think the sort of CO who will hold a low singleton spade is folding very often here [/ QUOTE ] Don't forget that the CO is also posting blind. He got trapped in the hand PF and is probably begging for an excuse to get out. [/ QUOTE ] I know that CO posted a blind, but people aren't calling with 100% random trash there. The big thing is in this situation, CO being behind you may not be reason enough to raise with the range of hands that BB can have here. I'm torn between all three options here, but I don't know if BB leads A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] here very often. Your equity is pretty shitty on this flop 3-ways, but it doesn't improve that much by folding out CO, especially given the range of hands CO can be having anyway. You're only going to save yourself the pot when A) a 4-flush comes in, B) BB has overcards without a spade, and C) CO will actually fold whatever [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he's holding. Rob 
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#12
10-13-2005, 08:49 PM
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Re: 88
[ QUOTE ]
You're only going to save yourself the pot when A) a 4-flush comes in, B) BB has overcards without a spade, and C) CO will actually fold whatever [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he's holding. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I don't agree at all. CO could have as many 15 outs to beat me that he would be more than willing to fold given the prospect of being trapped between aggressors with this dangerous board. Can he call with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] here, for example?
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#13
10-13-2005, 08:58 PM
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Re: 88
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You're only going to save yourself the pot when A) a 4-flush comes in, B) BB has overcards without a spade, and C) CO will actually fold whatever [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he's holding. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I don't agree at all. CO could have as many 15 outs to beat me that he would be more than willing to fold given the prospect of being trapped between aggressors with this dangerous board. Can he call with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] here, for example? [/ QUOTE ] He's not folding with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 100% of the time. He's not calling two with it 100% of the time either. But you've got the BB to be legitimately concerned about too, right? I think if your plan involves spending 3.5BB on this hand, your plan probably needs some modifying. I'm strongly leaning toward folding the flop right now, reverse-implied-odds style, but maybe raising is better. I'm just interested in discussing it because I don't think raising is clear cut, largely because you've got to be worried enough about BB here that raising to fold out CO won't necessarily be to your advantage. I dunno. I'm gonna mull this one over. I'm leaning toward a flop fold, despite how that feels weak as hell. Rob
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#14
10-13-2005, 09:06 PM
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Re: 88
I see your point, but my plan was not actually to invest 3.5BB. I was investing 2, possibly 3 SB on the flop to protect and find out where I was. Had most cards come on the turn I was folding. But the turn gave me 3 extra outs that I figured were just enough to squeak out a call given the chance that I was actually ahead combined with my 4 clean outs to beat Ax A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] getting 9:1.
But I can't say I'd criticize anyone for folding this scary ass flop and moving on to the next hand.
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#15
10-13-2005, 09:12 PM
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Re: 88
[ QUOTE ]
I see your point, but my plan was not actually to invest 3.5BB. I was investing 2, possibly 3 SB on the flop to protect and find out where I was. Had most cards come on the turn I was folding. But the turn gave me 3 extra outs that I figured were just enough to squeak out a call given the chance that I was actually ahead combined with my 4 clean outs to beat Ax A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] getting 9:1. But I can't say I'd criticize anyone for folding this scary ass flop and moving on to the next hand. [/ QUOTE ] Right now, I'm torn between calling the flop to see A) what CO does and B) what BB does on the turn and simply folding the flop. I'm pretty sure -- especially if you're calling a flop 3-bet and calling a gutshot-giving turn card -- that both of those are better than raising. Rob
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#17
10-13-2005, 09:50 PM
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Re: 88
[ QUOTE ]
Right now, I'm torn between calling the flop to see A) what CO does and B) what BB does on the turn and simply folding the flop. I'm pretty sure -- especially if you're calling a flop 3-bet and calling a gutshot-giving turn card -- that both of those are better than raising. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I thought at first about calling the flop too, but then what do you do on the turn? Raise with a great card like this? If he does have the As he's not folding, and if he already has you beat then you've put in 2 more BB for nothing.
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