Betting TPTK on very scary board.

Borodog · #1 10-13-2005, 06:29 PM

Possibly less straight forward than it may seem.

Villain is 62.4, 7.8, 0.57 after 140 hands.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 5 folds, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

River: (6.70 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

Final Pot: 8.70 BB

pokerjunky · #2 10-13-2005, 06:33 PM

River looks like a bet and fold to a raise situation against this opponent if thats what your wondering. Nice hand.

Borodog · #3 10-13-2005, 06:48 PM

Well, I was wondering with a PFR under 8, what percentage of hands I am ahead of on this flop?

There's no way I wasn't going to bet with the board so drawy, but a c/r would not have surprised me at any moment. How often will it come?

HajiShirazu · #4 10-13-2005, 07:00 PM

Your hand is better here than you think. Most of the time you'll just be splitting, but if he's like most people who don't think about what you might 3 bet with he'll call down with AQ and there are twice as many AQ's as sets, and then you have a value bet on the river.

goofball · #5 10-13-2005, 10:57 PM

FOlding to a river checkraise is insane against this villian. Not betting any street is insane against this villian.

Perfect.

hobbsmann · #6 10-13-2005, 11:05 PM

standard.

Borodog · #7 10-13-2005, 11:05 PM

Oh, I wan't folding.

My question was, given a PFR of 7.8%, what percentage of the time am I still ahead on this flop?

goofball · #8 10-13-2005, 11:35 PM

agg factor is ona sliding scale though, .5 is a perfectly agg for 65 guys. Given that he's never raised you I'd say you're still ahead.

silkyslim · #9 10-13-2005, 11:41 PM

AQ,AJ,TT,99,88,KT, splits with AK

brettbrettr · #10 10-13-2005, 11:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My question was, given a PFR of 7.8%, what percentage of the time am I still ahead on this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot. If the flop were AQJ you'd have a problem. Nice hand. I don't see any other way to play it.

Dare I say...

(I [censored] love that painting.)