Call this river?

Vern · #1 05-14-2005, 10:16 AM

Table is loose with a mix of passives and aggressives.

MP1 is a pre-flop LAG, the only hand I saw him limp/call and then showdown was with J2o. He raises, limp re-raises, re-raises or caps with any two suited, any pairs, any ace, any two braodway cards and maybe even T9o or other offsuited no gap connectors. I have him at VP$IP 84%, PFR 45% but his after flop aggression is a modest 1.1. After ~100 hands I have him down over 90BB.

MP3 is semi-loose and passive before and after the flop, but is capable of just taking a shot at a pot if weakness is shown.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, MP1 3-bets, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero caps, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (14.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, MP1 folds.

River: (10.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 bets, Hero ?

Pot is pretty big now, but I just have AK to show. I don't think he bets the turn without part of the board, but again, I am getting 11:1 to call. This is where I get flustered the most often. Should I have semi-bluffed on the turn (A three-bet would have sucked) and checked behind unimproved? What if I semi-bluff raise the turn and he still leads the river, now the pot is even bigger, what then?

As always any comments or criticism of any part of the hand is welcome.

Vern

Standard Disclaimer, I am by no means an expert at any of this.

Bigdaddydvo · #2 05-14-2005, 10:24 AM

I've wondered about situations like this. Let's break it down:

Turn Raise: Pluses-Often gets you a "free" showdown on the river if none of your outs come through w/your ace high. Getting 3-bet sucks, but isn't a catastrophe since we have a lot of ways to make our hand w/one card to come.

Calling Turn, Raising river if we hit: I only like this line if we're going to throw the ace high away. I honestly don't think your hand is best enough to make the call, even w/the odds you're getting.

I think they're close, but I'm curious to see what others think.

PotatoStew · #3 05-14-2005, 10:26 AM

According to your read, I think you're probably beat... you showed strength all the way so far, and he still bet into you on the turn. The pot is pretty large though. I'd probably call and then kick myself when I saw his Queen.

PotatoStew · #4 05-14-2005, 10:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Turn Raise: Pluses-Often gets you a "free" showdown on the river if none of your outs come through w/your ace high. Getting 3-bet sucks, but isn't a catastrophe since we have a lot of ways to make our hand w/one card to come.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this thinking... I'm assuming that you'd fold to a river bet unimproved?

Vern · #5 05-14-2005, 10:29 AM

One of the other down sides of a turn raise are it drives out MP1 who could have just about any of those hands I listed. He might call one with the bottom end of a gutshot, but a raise would scare him away. One important stat on him I failed to mention, Went to SD 33% and Won $ at Show Down 12%. (At least thinking of keeping him in was part of my decision making process in just calling)

Bigdaddydvo · #6 05-14-2005, 10:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I like this thinking... I'm assuming that you'd fold to a river bet unimproved?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely

masonx · #7 05-14-2005, 11:29 AM

I think thats a relatively easy fold, 33% of showdowns isnt alot, now if itere 45-50 then we could warrant a call but the 12% of showdowns won just means he is running bad (you probably have a small sample size too like 50 hands or so).

I like the idea of a turn raise there..

Solid_p · #8 05-14-2005, 01:22 PM

Given the read, I would call the turn and fold the river ui. Against a more aggressive opponent, I must say I like the turn raise and checking behind on the river ui. If bet into on river, I fold ui.

MisterKing · #9 05-14-2005, 01:38 PM

EASY CALL. 11.x:1 closing the action heads-up against a maniac? Oh yeah. You have an enormous overlay on this bet.

Entity · #10 05-14-2005, 01:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
EASY CALL. 11.x:1 closing the action heads-up against a maniac? Oh yeah. You have an enormous overlay on this bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

MP3 isn't a maniac.

I'd fold.

Rob