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#1
08-10-2005, 10:48 AM
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Mid PP in BB - come play along?
This is posted from memory of last night, so it's not going to be 100% accurate.
Reads: UTG+1 is TAGish at 13/8/2.5. I've watched him play 50 hands or so and nothing remarkable to note so far. MP player was in his first or second orbit. No outstanding reads, but appeared to be a LP fish who was seeing a lot of flops and not showing too much aggression. I don't recall anything about the LP player, which means he was probably a typical PP fish. Party Poker 2/4 (10 handed) Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 1 fold, UTG+1 raises, folds to MP player who calls, folds to a LP player who calls, folds to me I call. Flop: (8.5 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players) Hero ? 
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#4
08-10-2005, 11:10 AM
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Re: Mid PP in BB - come play along?
Really? I'm inclined to bet the flop and hope that the TAG faces the field with 2 for me. I'd really like to fold nines, tens, queens, kings and aces, here. Hero's hand is vulnerable to anything that a TAG might've raised with preflop, but also to close to half the deck, so we should be trying to thin the field to protect.
The alternative, I think, is check/call the flop and then check/raise a safe card (anything sub-7) on the turn.
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#5
08-10-2005, 11:14 AM
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Re: Mid PP in BB - come play along?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Hmmm...c/r the flop. [/ QUOTE ] Thus trapping the field for 2 here? I think I'd prefer to bet and hope villain is the sort to auto-raise with overcards ... [/ QUOTE ] That would be nice. I'm inclined to think to think here than Villain isn't the type to raise except with a hand we lose to. I'm also open to check/calling the flop and betting the turn.
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#6
08-10-2005, 11:21 AM
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Re: Mid PP in BB - come play along?
[ QUOTE ]
I'm inclined to think to think here than Villain isn't the type to raise except with a hand we lose to. [/ QUOTE ] Well, if we're just going to start making up reads, now... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I'm concerned that the Villan wouldn't raise anything preflop that we beat without flopping a set, but, assuming we're not folding, I think we have to do what we can to win the pot. Most PFRs at these levels will auto-continuation-bet on the flop (which your line counts on), and most with this level of postflop agg will also auto-continuation-raise in this situation (which my line counts on). IMHO
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#7
08-10-2005, 11:24 AM
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Re: Mid PP in BB - come play along?
i like check/calling this flop. i think it is possible we're ahead, but no matter what we do here (donkbet, or c/r), we aren't helping our situation.
if we donkbet and TAG raises: we aren't helping our situation, as we still have to dodge overcards if he is that type of player, so even if we fold the 2 players behind the TAG, we don't know if we've bought any outs, plus we could be behind to a higher pair anyways, so our information is unreliable. if the read is right anyways, he probably isn't raising UI overcards, plus if he calls, we're in no better shape if he is smoothcalling a higher pair. if he c/r, again we trapped the field, so we're still in trouble with the 2 cold callers. the only benefit i can see here is if the TAG 3-bets: wouldn't that signify a higher pair and should check/fold the turn UI? i just don't think whatever we do, we're protecting our hand, buying significant outs, or improving our situation enough.
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#8
08-10-2005, 11:33 AM
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Re: Mid PP in BB - come play along?
[ QUOTE ]
i like check/calling this flop. i think it is possible we're ahead, but no matter what we do here (donkbet, or c/r), we aren't helping our situation. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. The pot is worth contesting, and every naked 9/T/Q/K/A that folds helps our hand. UTG is likely to have 6 outs against us when we're ahead, but collectively overcards held by others could have up to 15 outs against us and it would be nice if some of them went away. Having said that, given your line, are you planning a straightforward calldown (assuming no one aside from UTG shows any further aggression) on the remaining streets?
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#9
08-10-2005, 11:34 AM
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Re: Mid PP in BB - come play along?
[ QUOTE ]
That would be nice. I'm inclined to think to think here than Villain isn't the type to raise except with a hand we lose to. I'm also open to check/calling the flop and betting the turn. [/ QUOTE ] Disregarding the made up reads, forcing weaker hands to fold while your hand is second best is good for you because it increases your chances of winning. That is, unless I have misunderstood that concept. Someone help me here.
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#10
08-10-2005, 11:45 AM
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Re: Mid PP in BB - come play along?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] That would be nice. I'm inclined to think to think here than Villain isn't the type to raise except with a hand we lose to. I'm also open to check/calling the flop and betting the turn. [/ QUOTE ] Disregarding the made up reads, forcing weaker hands to fold while your hand is second best is good for you because it increases your chances of winning. That is, unless I have misunderstood that concept. Someone help me here. [/ QUOTE ] No, you're pretty much right. You want to fold weakER hands that still have a strong draw, such as, in this case, AK. Folding weaker hands that have little to no chance of beating you is setting money on fire. Edit: make it AT or A9. AK probably would have raised preflop.
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