How many hands before you are confident of your win rate?

Hello

I just wondered what people consider a good sample is for determining your success?

A favourite quote on here is obviously 'sample size to small'

Im a little embarrassed to admit that I win 0.8BB/100 over a sample of 130,000 at 5/10 which is pretty weak given the quality of players on here (and their winrates) but I'm happy that im learning and improving.

I guess its kind of a reassurance thing (coz Im that kind of guy) but is 130,000 hands enough for me to be able to relax in the knowledge that I am a winning player?

Thanks in advance...

[Scotch78]

If you have beaten any game over 130,000 hands, then yes, you are almost certainly a winner. However, if you're beating it for less that 1 BB/100 I'd highly recommend moving down in limits and/or playing less tables.

Scott

Ok Scott - thanks for the advice. I think Im just kinda hoping I will suddenly 'get it' but there is obviously some big holes. Ive started paying for coaching so maybe that will help as well.

Dropping down is obviously something to seriously consider.

Merry Xmas!

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]

Dropping down is obviously something to seriously consider.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if I agree with this. You know that you can solidly beat the game. The more you play and learn, the more your winrate will improve. So, as long as your comfortable with your bankroll and so forth, staying at 5/10 might be a good option. There are practical advantages too: you know how the game plays, you probably have sweet PT stats on tons of your regular opponents, and so forth.

In order for dropping down to 3/6 to improve your earn, you'd have to be making about 1.4-1.5 bb/100 at that limit or more. If you can do that, consider it. But playing at 5/10 will help you get better and so maybe that's the right place for you.

Definitely don't move up limits, though, until you've got that winrate up a bit... But, remember, anything about 0 bb/100 is good. It's better than the vast majority of poker players. And it can only get better...

Interesting viewpoint. And one I probably prefer (for the time being, anyway)

I know everyone on here has dropped down at some point but I did it once from 15/30 (made 11K quick, lost 6 even quicker...) and I dont want to admit defeat and do it again when I see some of the idiots swimming about on PP.

Yes - I feel comfortable at 5/10 and I do have some nice PT info.

I think I just need to work on reading hands a bit better and do a bit more bet/folding instead of bet/calling.

Thanks for your words W.D. Its given me some real confidence to hear a respected poster say I can 'solidly beat' 5/10 - even if it is only for 0.8 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]