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  #1  
Old 12-03-2005, 06:40 PM
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Default How long before you second guess yourself.

I've been playing for a living for a little over 2 years, mostly live. Expenses, expenses, bad money management and expenses forced me to start from scratch last January. Since then I've been playing mostly online. I finally got myself up to 5/10 about 6-8 weeks ago and began making $40-50/hr. I think I've been running a little to well for most of that time. Occasionally losing over a grand at a time, but usually making it back within 30 hours or even the same session sometimes.

But now those convenient upswings have dissappeared. I don't even make small wins anymore. I'm down about $1000 for the last 8 days (6-9k hands). The volume doesnt concern me so much as the duration.

I'm getting very concerned and today in just 450 hands I've lost $450! My bankroll isn't in danger, but how much longer can I let this go on?

-It's never a bad beat when the better player wins-
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  #2  
Old 12-03-2005, 07:09 PM
gaming_mouse gaming_mouse is offline
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Default Re: How long before you second guess yourself.

$1000 is only 100 BB at 5/10. So you are not losing much at all, based on that info. Although if you don't know that swings like this are completely standard I don't see how you could have been playing poker professionally for 2 years.
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Old 12-03-2005, 07:12 PM
stillbr stillbr is offline
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Default Re: How long before you second guess yourself.

Breaking even, or much worse for that matter, isnt a big deal over 10k hands. Although if its screwing with your mind just drop down in stakes for a while.
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Old 12-03-2005, 07:17 PM
PokerBob PokerBob is offline
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Default Re: How long before you second guess yourself.

downswings happen all of the time. 100BB drops are commonplace. I would think that you would have experienced this by now. I also play for a living (but i suck). here is a graph of my last 45K hands.

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  #5  
Old 12-03-2005, 07:22 PM
gaming_mouse gaming_mouse is offline
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Default Re: How long before you second guess yourself.

Bob,

How many hands do you have total for which you are a winner? I think it's dangerous to write off a 45K hand break even streak as variance. Of course it could be, but it's usually not.
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  #6  
Old 12-03-2005, 07:22 PM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
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Default Re: How long before you second guess yourself.

It's not uncommon to go two years or longer without any major downswings when playing LIVE because

(1) you're playing a smaller number of hands, so you can avoid hitting the extreme negative forms of variance for quite a while
(2) depending where you play, the opponents can be so bad that your winrate is quite high, which decreases the amount of one's downswings (in terms of BBs lost on an absolute scale) -- much of a downswing against horrible opponents is simply earning less than you normally would.
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Old 12-03-2005, 07:27 PM
gaming_mouse gaming_mouse is offline
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Default Re: How long before you second guess yourself.

[ QUOTE ]


(2) depending where you play, the opponents can be so bad that your winrate is quite high, which decreases the amount of one's downswings (in terms of BBs lost on an absolute scale) -- much of a downswing against horrible opponents is simply earning less than you normally would.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a somewhat valid point, but still the opponents would have to be really horrible. I mean, you'd have to be rounding at The Normandie. Even a 3 or 4 BB/100 will experience downswings over 10K hands.

[ QUOTE ]
(1) you're playing a smaller number of hands, so you can avoid hitting the extreme negative forms of variance for quite a while

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea what you mean this.
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  #8  
Old 12-03-2005, 07:27 PM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
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Default Re: How long before you second guess yourself.

Nov. was my best month to date. BB/100 of 1.50 over 80K hands. However, it included 3 breakeven streaks of 18K, 14K, and 9K hands. October I ran 45K hands to -500 BBs. The next 35K hands let me finish +100BBs on the month. This is the nature of the game. 10K hands is nothing. 45K hands is something, but from the way he comes across Bob is a Pro, so he knows this. OP is clearly not a pro, but perhaps he can become one with work. 10K hands? Give me a break.
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  #9  
Old 12-03-2005, 07:28 PM
PokerBob PokerBob is offline
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Default Re: How long before you second guess yourself.

[ QUOTE ]
Bob,

How many hands do you have total for which you are a winner? I think it's dangerous to write off a 45K hand break even streak as variance. Of course it could be, but it's usually not.

[/ QUOTE ]

My last 45K is from Oct. 1 (I played a lot live after the Party split.) The graph below is March-Sept.

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  #10  
Old 12-03-2005, 07:30 PM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
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Default Re: How long before you second guess yourself.

196K hands is short term variance. Anyone can run well over that few hands.
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