Set trouble

$200NL
Im in the SB with 33. 2 guys limp up front and then a guy raises to $8. The button calls and then I call. 1st 2 limpers fold.

The flop comes J83 all spades. I check, preflop raiser bets $12, the button raises to $36. Whats my move?

All 3 of us have full $200 stacks. Preflop raiser isnt very good and I know I have him beat. The button plays pretty well but does get out of line every now and then. He could be making a move on the preflop raiser, or he could have a higher set or flush.

[Malachii]

I'd just stick it in.

[anacrime]

I bet my set.

[revots33]

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All 3 of us have full $200 stacks. Preflop raiser isnt very good and I know I have him beat.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this type of thinking can be costly. He may not be very good but bad players get dealt 2 spades or a pair of jacks just as often as the rest of us. I only mention this because I've fallen into that trap myself - assuming a bad player can't have a big hand, even when the board and his betting makes it extrmely possible. In this case preflop raiser is just as likely to have a flush or set as the button - but you are only considering the possibility that the button has it.

Anyway, I hate to fold a set but in this case given the action I lay bottom set down.

[wdeadwyler]

This is what you get for checking a set on the flop, as played I call and lead a non spade turn and re-evaluate

[mudbuddha]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All 3 of us have full $200 stacks. Preflop raiser isnt very good and I know I have him beat.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this type of thinking can be costly. He may not be very good but bad players get dealt 2 spades or a pair of jacks just as often as the rest of us. I only mention this because I've fallen into that trap myself - assuming a bad player can't have a big hand, even when the board and his betting makes it extrmely possible. In this case preflop raiser is just as likely to have a flush or set as the button - but you are only considering the possibility that the button has it.

Anyway, I hate to fold a set but in this case given the action I lay bottom set down.

[/ QUOTE ]

[rikz]

[ QUOTE ]
I check, preflop raiser bets $12, the button raises to $36

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the check. I'd bet $20, then see where I'm at. I expect the preflop raiser has an overpair with a big spade or AK/AQ with a big spade more often than a set, and the other guy probably made his flush. However, you're only slightly less than 2:1 in that situation if you go all-in with both of those hands on the flop.

Possible hands-
pokenum -h 9s ts - kc ks - 3h 3c -- js 8s 3s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Js 8s 3s
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts 9s 461 51.05 442 48.95 0 0.00 0.511
Ks Kc 159 17.61 744 82.39 0 0.00 0.176
3c 3h 283 31.34 620 68.66 0 0.00 0.313

I realize that JJ or 88 has you drawing near dead, but I don't think you can play 33 in a raised pot if you're too worried about set over set. It's the flush and the overpair/flush draws that I think you should base your decision on. That's why I like betting the flop best. KK with Ks probalby raises you, and the flush probably pushes, then you can call and expect KK to call and you have decent odds for a huge pot.

As the hand played out, I think you need to keep the preflop raiser in the hand by calling button's $36. If the preflop raiser raises and then button pushes, then I think you can call and get about 2:1 to see both the turn and the river. The worst case under this scenario is that you call, preflop raiser folds, board does not pair, then you check (or blocking bet) the turn only to see button push. At that point, you probably have to fold.

EDIT: Where I'm talking about "KK" I mean the overpair or overcards with a big spade, as represented in my odds calculation by KsKc. Also, this is a pretty specific read, but I think those are the most likely holdings for these villains other than JJ or 88 that I'm just not going to worry about here.