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  #11  
Old 12-29-2005, 11:19 PM
Buckmulligan Buckmulligan is offline
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Default Re: QQ and a fish: c/f this flop?

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Will a fish with his stats really bet in this situation with anything less than top pair or a set?

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maybe and thats not the point. When you act before him on the turn you are not entitled to the information of whether or not he will bet. Therefore, from ywhat you know, you bet.
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  #12  
Old 12-30-2005, 03:02 AM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
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Default Re: QQ and a fish: c/f this flop?

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When you bet the turn and get called, do you fire again on the river?

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I doubt it. Even though hero's read is "calls down with anything", I just don't think there are enough combinations of losing hands that call the turn bet that are losing to hero's hand (the board pairing was actually bad for hero. It would have been better if a jack or ten fell, as this allows villain's hand range to include many more losing hands when he calls on the turn).

The point of betting the turn is that villain can be peeling the flop with very very weak cards. His coldcall preflop probably includes the classic trap hands like KT and JTs. There might be weaker hands like K8, but even against a 50+ VPIP, that's really pushing it facing a preflop 3-bet. It's hard to imagine calling on the flop with these hands, but it happens quite frequently.

But these hands don't call the turn bet. This bet can be seen as both a value and information bet: value (when villain folds this means hero bet the best hand and it's too bad villain didn't pay it off or chase a losing draw) and information (when villain calls this means that he has *something* and *something* is much more likely to beat hero than lose to him).
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  #13  
Old 12-30-2005, 02:04 PM
kleinstadt1 kleinstadt1 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
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Default Re: QQ and a fish: c/f this flop?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Will a fish with his stats really bet in this situation with anything less than top pair or a set?

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe and thats not the point. When you act before him on the turn you are not entitled to the information of whether or not he will bet. Therefore, from ywhat you know, you bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This thinking is from TOP, I think. When you're not afraid of getting raised, and you're going to call if he bets, it's better to bet yourself.
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