Turn Decision

[W. Deranged]

Ackid,

Good post.

A few things to consider:

1. Though the pot is small now, if we three-bet and then get capped, at that point the pot is huge. Folding then becomes a huge problem.

2. The OP mentioned that villain did play some weird T high hands.

The main point, to me, is that I don't see much advantage to three-betting, but I see a lot of disadvantage to folding to a cap. If we call the check-raise, villain will usually bet the river even if he was semi-bluffing and missed. We don't have so strong a hand, in my opinion, to make sure that 4 bets go in on the turn and river. 3 BB gets us to showdown and we need to never forget that getting to showdown is a very valuable thing.

Is there a reason why folding here is so bad? Like I mentioned in my earlier post he has to be bluffing here at least 25% of the time before we start showing a profit for calling down.

Is a 35/11/1 player really bluffing or playing a weaker hand then us here more then 25% of the time?

I have been calling down these and Villain almost always (much better then 75%) is showing down a hand that beats me.

Can someone explain a) why folding is so bad when we have an overpair to someone in a small-medium sized pot on an un-coordinated board who is check raising us on the turn with an AF of 1ish and b) whether my 25% for calling to be successful is correct.

At this point I want to see a showdown, therefore I think calling down is the correct play. I want to see a showdown which this hand and by just calling here and check-calling the river unimproved we get to see it in the cheapest manner. If we 3-bet here and it gets capped and even if it does not get capped, the pot becomes larger and folding becomes more difficult on the river following our 3-bet.

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
The OP mentioned that villain did play some weird T high hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant JT+ and T8s+, not two pair hands. Even if we rule out all two pair hands (which I don't think is too much of a stretch) so that I'm ahead of everything but 22, 44 and 66, I'm still not sure whether calling is correct. Yes, there are a lot of top pair hands he would play pre-flop, but I don't think he's aggressive enough to pull this play with them. If the T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] had been a different suit, that might sway my decision, but I simply don't see him check-raising the turn with A4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or a naked ten.

Scott

[chesspain]

Why can't villain have a hand like A4/A2/K4 of diamonds?