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#1
06-13-2005, 02:30 PM
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Re: KJs HU OOP on turn and river
[ QUOTE ]
I'm intrigued by the flop play. Do you think both opponents will fold more than 1 time in 6 here? [/ QUOTE ] Based on the flop texture (not many mid-range cards), I think I may actually have the best hand right now. With one early position limper and a defended big blind, the chances of someone pairing the board is very small. Yes, an ace is possible, but to assume an ace is out there immediately is very timid thinking. A very large portion of the time, the ace is NOT out there. BB has the best chance of having me beat at the moment, if he made some loose blind defense with J5 or other junk like that. Limped pocket pairs are possible, but again it's too early to assume that, especially in such a small field. All of this is to say that we're probably playing the high card game right now, and I'm probably in the lead. I think I have a decent chance of taking it down now, and a very good chance of taking it down on a turn with another bet. Does it happen once in every seven tries (14% of the time)? Maybe not, but given the chances of having the best hand, I don't always need them to fold this one. I would love to have J9s or Q8 peeling one off on the flop (Q8 of courses catches me on the turn, but that's how poker goes). 
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#4
06-13-2005, 02:25 PM
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Re: KJs HU OOP on turn and river
this may not be correct, but i primarily consider how often i expect him to fold and how ballsy i think he is (to raise a better hand). if i feel he is highly likely to call with a better hand than to raise (as he should) then i am more inclined to bet (and to give him a chance to fold).
however...i think this might be a huge weakness in my game. (and i think the turn bet is goot.)
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#5
06-13-2005, 02:36 PM
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Re: KJs HU OOP on turn and river
on the flop you have virtually nothing i think check and fold if u get a free turn card lead out and they might fold. its just a nasty situation to be in and nothing can have much +ev
the only other thing i can think of is to try a semi-bluff check raise. check raise if he bets the flop and lead out on the turn and that might show enough strength to get him to fold? not sure tho
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#6
06-13-2005, 02:36 PM
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Re: KJs HU OOP on turn and river
Well I guess for the sake of discussion I'll go ahead and disagree with everyone. I just don't like raising from the blinds with hands that don't have any real showdown value UI. Furthermore, I don't like betting the turn or river either. If your PF raise and bet on an A-high flop didn't scare him, I don't think he's folding much on the turn and river either.
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#7
06-13-2005, 02:40 PM
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Re: KJs HU OOP on turn and river
[ QUOTE ]
Well I guess for the sake of discussion I'll go ahead and disagree with everyone. I just don't like raising from the blinds with hands that don't have any real showdown value UI. Furthermore, I don't like betting the turn or river either. If your PF raise and bet on an A-high flop didn't scare him, I don't think he's folding much on the turn and river either. [/ QUOTE ] With at most three players in the pot, how often do you expect to get to the showdown?
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#8
06-13-2005, 02:42 PM
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Re: KJs HU OOP on turn and river
[ QUOTE ]
With at most three players in the pot, how often do you expect to get to the showdown? [/ QUOTE ] More often than I'd like. And being out of position gives me less control over this.
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#9
06-13-2005, 03:15 PM
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Re: KJs HU OOP on turn and river
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] With at most three players in the pot, how often do you expect to get to the showdown? [/ QUOTE ] More often than I'd like. And being out of position gives me less control over this. [/ QUOTE ] That's not very helpful. You don't express how often you would like to get to the showdown, so you didn't even answer the question.
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#10
06-13-2005, 03:26 PM
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Re: KJs HU OOP on turn and river
[ QUOTE ]
That's not very helpful. You don't express how often you would like to get to the showdown, so you didn't even answer the question. [/ QUOTE ] My point was that having a hand with showdown value gives you more options on the river than just check-fold, which seems to be the consensus here.
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