Big PL Hold 'Em river bet, what do you think?

[Dave5511]

Okay, PL .25/.50 $50 buy in at Party. UTG limps, folds to cut off who limps, button raises to 2.75. I'm SB, raise to $9.5 w/ 2 red nines.

** Dealing Flop ** [ Js, 4c, 8s ]

SB bets [$12].
Button calls [$12].

** Dealing Turn ** [ 4s ]

SB bets [$15].
Button calls [$15].

** Dealing River ** [ Jc ]
SB checks.
Button bets all-In [$37.3]

I think for a bit here. Of course, AA, KK, QQ come to mind. Even AJ or KJ are hands I'm thinking about now.

However, the fact that he just called the big rasies/bets prelfop, flop, and turn can't escape my mind.

I think if he had AA, KK, QQ, he would have moved in on the TURN to try to capture the $15 bet then.

I think a bit longer, and finally decide he has AK.

What do you think?

[Dave5511]

I should have said, I started the hand w/about $80, he started w/about $70, and I have no strong read on his style yet.

[wtfsvi]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar på:</font><hr />
I think a bit longer, and finally decide he has AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you can expect a random villain to play AK like that. What do you think he has after he calls your flop bet? A8 is the only reasonable/probable hand you beat (and he's not pushing the river with that). I'm not saying villain has to have a reasonable hand, and he probably had AK this time since you're posting this, but I say shut down on the turn.

EDIT: Someone might make a case for just calling preflop. I think reraising is good.

[Dave5511]

wtfsvi, I'm not indifferent to what you're saying, but when reading the bets, what do you come up with?

Pot sized button raise w/ 2 limps and the 2 blinds sitting on the table.

That could be anything from AA to a steal.

I re-rasie the pot, making it 9.5, and he just calls.

Crafty player may make this play w/AA, KK, but your average player is probably hoping the flop is gonna hit him now.

J84 flop

$12 bet, and again, just a call.

Turn: 4.

$15 bet, and another call.

River brings a jack, putting 2 pair on the board.

He may think JJ44A is the best hand. I really think if he had a big pair, he makes his move on the turn. The monster bet on the river doesn't sound to me like he wants a call.

It's a huge pot, if he wants a call, wouldn't he bet out $10 or $20 that I may have to call?