Come yell at me (very iffy turn 3-bets with river checks)

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
still like the first hand, however. I'm the only one who has even tried to argue against it by using some sort of logical reasoning (I've also argued for it using that same reasoning). It's close, but I'm leaning towards liking my 3-bet. I'm still up for debate on it, but no one has actually debated with me than to say, "why don't you just call down?" which I've answered.

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah i thought about it some more. you've been right in saying that you're not risking any more bets by 3-betting here and either folding to a cap or folding to a river donk. you're also right that you're still going to get all your bets in if you do improve whether you 3-bet or call the turn.

the pot is 7 BB when it gets to you, and this is the part of the "equation" that most significantly affects wanting him to fold pure bluffs, because that's the only benefit i can see from the turn 3-bet.

if you call, the pot is 8 BB and you allow him to bluff again (or value bet if he hits) with his pure bluffs. assuming he always has 6 outs with his pure bluffs (which he doesn't, especially because i think he'd do this a lot with Ax), he will improve 6/40 times (52 - 4 tens - 4 aces - 4 board cards), or he is 5.7:1 to improve. you obviously want him to fold 6 outs.

obviously this is only a tiny part of it all. you have to know how often he is actually doing this with a pure bluff and how often he will actually call you with two random overcards.

and something you touched on earlier - about using our judgment whether or not to call the river. i think this may be pretty important since we should be able to somewhat decently estimate how much certain river cards affect our equity.

tough problem

[Jeff W]

I'd rather gouge my own eyes out than 3-bet either turn.

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
you've been right in saying that you're not risking any more bets by 3-betting here and either folding to a cap or folding to a river donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

But by folding to a cap, we miss out on the chance to improve to a hand that might beat a hand that is presently beating us.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you've been right in saying that you're not risking any more bets by 3-betting here and either folding to a cap or folding to a river donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

But by folding to a cap, we miss out on the chance to improve to a hand that might beat a hand that is presently beating us.

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah but how often is someone (even this guy) capping K8 or 99 here?

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you've been right in saying that you're not risking any more bets by 3-betting here and either folding to a cap or folding to a river donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

But by folding to a cap, we miss out on the chance to improve to a hand that might beat a hand that is presently beating us.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's capping it's with a better hand than I can draw out to the vast majority of the time. There's no way I call a cap.

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd rather gouge my own eyes out than 3-bet either turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

While that's an interesting fact, I'd still like to hear some reasons why 3-betting the turn in the first hand is bad.

I agree on the 2nd hand, however.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd rather gouge my own eyes out than 3-bet either turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree, but the way this thread has been going, I'm sure Metetron could find a way to argue that gouging your eyes out is also +EV.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
While that's an interesting fact, I'd still like to hear some reasons why 3-betting the turn in the first hand is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because a very aggro player(like the one in your example) will bet the river with a bluff quite often. By 3-betting you expose yourself to a bluff or to losing your outs when he goes crazy with a draw or a worse hand you're drawing live against and you earn the same amount when you have the best hand.

If your opponent will bet the river as a bluff and won't fold any hands you want to induce a fold from, you should not raise for a free showdown.

I'm not sure what you're trying to accomplish in either hand, especially hand 1.

Are you 3-betting the turn for value because you think you have the best hand or as a bluff hoping he folds? If it's the latter, you really need to re-evaluate the types of hands that LAGs fold before showdown.

If you're 3-betting for value, it's so thin that it makes zero sense. You can make the same amount of bets when ahead by calling down and you will never get outplayed. On top of that, you get to go for less when behind, which is much more often the case here. I realize you said you're going for only 3 bets either way, but keep in mind that by folding the current or potential winner, you're essentially going for more than 3 bets.

[TheMetetron]

Okay, those last 2 responses make sense.

Basically, what I am trying to get out of this has such marginal positive value, that setting myself up for him to outplay me is not worth it.

I can dig that.


Edit: Gouging your eyes out is +EV.