Cap this turn with TP + nut flush draw?

[7ontheline]

I know this is 9-handed, but I spend all my time here in HUSH and it was on a table that only JUST filled up. Anyway, it's 3-handed on the flop. My question is this - should I cap the turn given my likely good equity and the appearance that MP1 is drawing to something?

Also, anyone have a plan for the river other than calling any non-diamond and raising diamonds? Not many reads, both players had basically just sat down.

PokerStars 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.66 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.33 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, Hero???

[ArturiusX]

I call and raise improved on the river.

He'll surely bet out after 3-betting, but by capping now we risk him checking to us when we hit, and he still could bet when we miss.

So in short, more bets when we hit, less bets when we miss.

[jba]

if BB is somewhat sane, I think our equity on the turn (after the 3bet) is very poor. there is no way we drag this pot 33% of the time, and although a turn raise might buy us a free showdown I don't see any value in that.

call the turn and hit a diamond on the river is my advice.

[7ontheline]

Hmm. . .seems the decision is not as close as I may have thought. Still, I thought this would be a slightly odd way to play a made flush or straight on the flop. A baby flush would want to 3-bet the flop, wouldn't it? It's not like a naked A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] would go anywhere, so might as well charge it as much as possible. Am I way off here?

[irishpint]

i'd cap here. we have a great draw, but we also have top pair, so who is to say we're even behind? a weaker TP/flushdraw/staight draw might throw around chips like this. any reads on BB?

although arturisx does make a point about less bets when behind, more when ahead. i just dont know for sure we're behind here.

[helpmeout]

Capping is spewing unless this guy is a LAG who would bet TP like this which I doubt.

Your draw isnt that good you likely have only 9 outs and that is if he has a set or a straight.

A straight is the most likely holding as waiting for a non diamond turn would improve his equity.

2pair or a set would likely play the flop fast as to give them better odds to draw to boats on the river.

Some people also wait for the turn to raise a made flush so dont think that a flush is unlikely.

MP obviously has something so again this discounts your hand. You need like 15 outs or so to raise here.

[Surfbullet]

I think given BBs bet-call, bet-3bet line we are behind here nearly always. We don't have enough equity to raise, so I call the turn and fold the river UI. I raise any diamond river.

Surf

[7ontheline]

Wow, folding the river UI didn't even enter my thoughts. You really would? I wonder if I call down too much.

The river was a non-diamond 5 (not a great card for me, obviously). BB bet, MP folded, and I called. BB shows T8o (no diamonds) and MHIG.

[Surfbullet]

I think this is an aberration - even at a 5-6 handed table i'd expect villain to have a worse 8 just about never.

Anyone else care to chime in on this? I think this is a pretty easy river fold...

Surf