Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Sports Betting

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-14-2005, 08:44 PM
YoureToast YoureToast is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 20
Default Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks

Atlanta +3 +117 or Atlanta +3.5 -110 can be found presently at Pinny.

These are outstanding opportunities as this matchup is tailor-made for the Falcons. Atlanta should be able to run very successfully against this Bears team in the cold particularly to the right, which will open up the Vick boot. And the Bears will struggle against Atlanta resurging run defense. DeAngelo Hall will match up favorably with Mushin Muhammad and neutralize their only semi-threat.

This is a must-win for the Falcons and the Bears are in a QB controversy.

Take Atlanta now at this price.
If the price goes down because it looks like Vick might not play, buy more as the QB is not the reason the Falcons will win this game.

I may have an over-under pick later. If anything, I'd lean on the over at 31 or 31.5.

Edit: I also may have some good prop opportunities, particularly with Warrick Dunn.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-14-2005, 10:25 PM
McGahee McGahee is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 735
Default Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks

OK, I like the Bears. Resurging run defense?
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-14-2005, 10:55 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks

[ QUOTE ]
And the Bears will struggle against Atlanta resurging run defense.

[/ QUOTE ]

?

Wk 14 NO 125 yds rushing
Wk 13 Car 142 yds rushing
Wk 12 Det 75 yds rushing (5.5 yds/carry) because they were getting slaughtered
Wk 11 TB 140 yds rushing

This may sound like quibbling but if the Falcons can't stop the Bears run game your whole argument breaks down pretty easily.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 12-15-2005, 08:04 AM
Sluss Sluss is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Still finishing bleeding
Posts: 220
Default Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks

Do you understand the difference between the Steelers run blocking scheme and the Falcons? The Steelers were able to run the ball effectively after the field conditions started to deteriorate because they have a straight ahead blocking scheme where there goal is to stop the lineman in their tracks and drive them off of the line of scrimage. Before that there was some great play calling by the Steelers with screens and misdirection plays.

The Falcons blocking scheme is a zone which is most effective when the lineman are forced to move and they can cut the back side. It is very difficult to cut athletic lineman and line backers. This is the reason why the Falcons struggle vs. TB. The Bears are running the same defense.

If the Falcons win this game it will be because of the Bears poor tackling like last week or Vick being able to throw the ball very well on a cold windy night in Chicago.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 12-15-2005, 10:40 AM
YoureToast YoureToast is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 20
Default Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks

[ QUOTE ]
Do you understand the difference between the Steelers run blocking scheme and the Falcons? The Steelers were able to run the ball effectively after the field conditions started to deteriorate because they have a straight ahead blocking scheme where there goal is to stop the lineman in their tracks and drive them off of the line of scrimage. Before that there was some great play calling by the Steelers with screens and misdirection plays.

The Falcons blocking scheme is a zone which is most effective when the lineman are forced to move and they can cut the back side. It is very difficult to cut athletic lineman and line backers. This is the reason why the Falcons struggle vs. TB. The Bears are running the same defense.

If the Falcons win this game it will be because of the Bears poor tackling like last week or Vick being able to throw the ball very well on a cold windy night in Chicago.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make good points regarding the difference between the running styles. However, you forget that the Falcons have one more weapon at their disposal that Pittsburgh does not, and that is the Vick roll-out threat. This threat neutralizes the speed of fast backers and DEs. By the way, Atlanta ran effectively against the Bucs (150 yds) in their last game (150 yds). Against Carolina, the Panthers came in geared up (and it showed in last weeks game against the Bucs) and with a great game plan but Atlanta still gained 120 on the ground. They just didn't score TDs when they needed to. The other very key factor is that the Bears will be starting 2 non-starters (rookies I believe) at the 2 safety spots.

Just to clarify, I don't expect Atlanta to run for huge numbers against the Bears, but they should be able to control the game with the run. Any number of players on the Falcons on offense are difference makers (Vick, Dunn, Crumpler, Roddy White arguably); the Bears have none on offense themselves other than perhaps Muhummad. This game won't be easy by any stretch for the Falcons; but the price is right.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 12-15-2005, 10:47 AM
YoureToast YoureToast is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 20
Default Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And the Bears will struggle against Atlanta resurging run defense.

[/ QUOTE ]

?

Wk 14 NO 125 yds rushing
Wk 13 Car 142 yds rushing
Wk 12 Det 75 yds rushing (5.5 yds/carry) because they were getting slaughtered
Wk 11 TB 140 yds rushing

This may sound like quibbling but if the Falcons can't stop the Bears run game your whole argument breaks down pretty easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you watch the games? At Carolina, yes they struggled against the run, but compared to their previous showings, they showed marked improvement -- and many of Carolina's running yards came in the 2nd half when Carolina was trying to move the clock. Against New Orleans, while the Falcons gave up a few big runs early in the game, they basically shut down the Saints completely in the 2nd half. Remember, this is a team that lost their middle linebacker before the last Saints game and subsequently gave up 200+ yds. This is also a team that has lost its starting right DE. The number of rookies or young players playing for the Falcons right now on defense is mindboggling. Only 5 starters from the beginning of the year are starting now in their same positions (Kerney, Coleman, Lavalais, D. Hall and Carpenter). D. Williams and Brooking have moved positions. Falcons are starting rookies at strong side LB and at right DE. They just demoted one of their safties for a better run-stopper (Ronnie Heard), and it showed in the Saints game. This run defense is NOT good, but it is getting better. And it is good enough to stop the Bears, especially given the lack of threats on the outside.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 12-15-2005, 10:52 AM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you understand the difference between the Steelers run blocking scheme and the Falcons? The Steelers were able to run the ball effectively after the field conditions started to deteriorate because they have a straight ahead blocking scheme where there goal is to stop the lineman in their tracks and drive them off of the line of scrimage. Before that there was some great play calling by the Steelers with screens and misdirection plays.

The Falcons blocking scheme is a zone which is most effective when the lineman are forced to move and they can cut the back side. It is very difficult to cut athletic lineman and line backers. This is the reason why the Falcons struggle vs. TB. The Bears are running the same defense.

If the Falcons win this game it will be because of the Bears poor tackling like last week or Vick being able to throw the ball very well on a cold windy night in Chicago.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make good points regarding the difference between the running styles. However, you forget that the Falcons have one more weapon at their disposal that Pittsburgh does not, and that is the Vick roll-out threat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now I'm confused. I thought you said Vick wasn't going to matter in this game? The reason the line has dropped from -2.5 -115 to -3 -120 is because of Vick's health incidentally. If he is a factor as you're claiming now, the chance that he gets knocked out of the game makes this line move pretty smart.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 12-15-2005, 10:53 AM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And the Bears will struggle against Atlanta resurging run defense.

[/ QUOTE ]

?

Wk 14 NO 125 yds rushing
Wk 13 Car 142 yds rushing
Wk 12 Det 75 yds rushing (5.5 yds/carry) because they were getting slaughtered
Wk 11 TB 140 yds rushing

This may sound like quibbling but if the Falcons can't stop the Bears run game your whole argument breaks down pretty easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you watch the games? At Carolina, yes they struggled against the run, but compared to their previous showings, they showed marked improvement -- and many of Carolina's running yards came in the 2nd half when Carolina was trying to move the clock. Against New Orleans, while the Falcons gave up a few big runs early in the game, they basically shut down the Saints completely in the 2nd half. Remember, this is a team that lost their middle linebacker before the last Saints game and subsequently gave up 200+ yds. This is also a team that has lost its starting right DE. The number of rookies or young players playing for the Falcons right now on defense is mindboggling. Only 5 starters from the beginning of the year are starting now in their same positions (Kerney, Coleman, Lavalais, D. Hall and Carpenter). D. Williams and Brooking have moved positions. Falcons are starting rookies at strong side LB and at right DE. They just demoted one of their safties for a better run-stopper (Ronnie Heard), and it showed in the Saints game. This run defense is NOT good, but it is getting better. And it is good enough to stop the Bears, especially given the lack of threats on the outside.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a difference between "improved from bad" and "resurgent", I think that's all the previous poster and I are trying to point out.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 12-15-2005, 10:59 AM
YoureToast YoureToast is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 20
Default Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you understand the difference between the Steelers run blocking scheme and the Falcons? The Steelers were able to run the ball effectively after the field conditions started to deteriorate because they have a straight ahead blocking scheme where there goal is to stop the lineman in their tracks and drive them off of the line of scrimage. Before that there was some great play calling by the Steelers with screens and misdirection plays.

The Falcons blocking scheme is a zone which is most effective when the lineman are forced to move and they can cut the back side. It is very difficult to cut athletic lineman and line backers. This is the reason why the Falcons struggle vs. TB. The Bears are running the same defense.

If the Falcons win this game it will be because of the Bears poor tackling like last week or Vick being able to throw the ball very well on a cold windy night in Chicago.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make good points regarding the difference between the running styles. However, you forget that the Falcons have one more weapon at their disposal that Pittsburgh does not, and that is the Vick roll-out threat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now I'm confused. I thought you said Vick wasn't going to matter in this game? The reason the line has dropped from -2.5 -115 to -3 -120 is because of Vick's health incidentally. If he is a factor as you're claiming now, the chance that he gets knocked out of the game makes this line move pretty smart.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I'm assuming Vick's playing as of what I heard this morning. I would also suspect that the line will move "too" strongly if it turns out Schaub will play, in which case, there will still be value.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 12-15-2005, 11:00 AM
YoureToast YoureToast is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 20
Default Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And the Bears will struggle against Atlanta resurging run defense.

[/ QUOTE ]

?

Wk 14 NO 125 yds rushing
Wk 13 Car 142 yds rushing
Wk 12 Det 75 yds rushing (5.5 yds/carry) because they were getting slaughtered
Wk 11 TB 140 yds rushing

This may sound like quibbling but if the Falcons can't stop the Bears run game your whole argument breaks down pretty easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you watch the games? At Carolina, yes they struggled against the run, but compared to their previous showings, they showed marked improvement -- and many of Carolina's running yards came in the 2nd half when Carolina was trying to move the clock. Against New Orleans, while the Falcons gave up a few big runs early in the game, they basically shut down the Saints completely in the 2nd half. Remember, this is a team that lost their middle linebacker before the last Saints game and subsequently gave up 200+ yds. This is also a team that has lost its starting right DE. The number of rookies or young players playing for the Falcons right now on defense is mindboggling. Only 5 starters from the beginning of the year are starting now in their same positions (Kerney, Coleman, Lavalais, D. Hall and Carpenter). D. Williams and Brooking have moved positions. Falcons are starting rookies at strong side LB and at right DE. They just demoted one of their safties for a better run-stopper (Ronnie Heard), and it showed in the Saints game. This run defense is NOT good, but it is getting better. And it is good enough to stop the Bears, especially given the lack of threats on the outside.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a difference between "improved from bad" and "resurgent", I think that's all the previous poster and I are trying to point out.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Resurgent" = wrong choice of words. Should be "improving"
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:31 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.