Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Limit Texas Hold'em > Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 09-15-2005, 01:19 PM
Robb Robb is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1
Default 30/60 vets: Postflop estimate

The game is 30/60 online. Assume you have raised an UTG+1 limper with JJ in LP. BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop is A96 (barely coordinated and contains an Ace, rainbow)
You bet BB folds and UTG+1 check-raises.

UTG is not a maniac. What percent is JJ good here if UTG+1 is:
A) LA
B) LP
C) TA
D) Player is new to you
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 09-15-2005, 01:29 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: 30/60 vets: Postflop estimate

A)50%
B)10%
C)25%
D)25%
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 09-15-2005, 02:02 PM
stoxtrader stoxtrader is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 219
Default Re: 30/60 vets: Postflop estimate

why not figure out what odds you need to see a showdown and estimate if they are giving you the right price?
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 09-15-2005, 02:12 PM
Robb Robb is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1
Default Additional info

Sorry....I estimate my average image is aggressive. My tightness factor probably varies quite a bit since I can get aggressive at weird times but on average, I'm probably viewed as a little tight.

Also, assume game is 10 handed.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 09-15-2005, 02:21 PM
Robb Robb is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1
Default Re: 30/60 vets: Postflop estimate

Well we need both obviously: estimate we are good and pot odds. But since everyone can calculate pot odds I didn't mention it.

But the question can also be phrased: Do you have odds to continue vs this type of opponent?

I think a percentage is more helpful to apply to all hands since pot odds are more objective than your chance of being good. And I'm looking to evaluate my play in all scenarios (except blind stealing) where I'm check-raised as the preflop raiser on an Ace high board.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 09-15-2005, 03:07 PM
stoxtrader stoxtrader is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 219
Default Re: 30/60 vets: Postflop estimate

well, one you can certainly do with more precision than the other, but your point is valid, we are simply approaching the same problem from opposite directions - if you do go to showdown, remember to factor in your 2 outs.

secondly - evaluating "all" your play this way is tough to do, you need to be specific about hands, action, players.

For instance, some very good players I suspect auto-check raise every flop with an ace when defening blinds, which I think is a very good play. Even knowing (suspecting) they always do it, makes it tough for me to play against them.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 09-16-2005, 04:15 AM
flawless_victory flawless_victory is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 144
Default Re: 30/60 vets: Postflop estimate

[ QUOTE ]
Even knowing (suspecting) they always do it, makes it tough for me to play against them.

[/ QUOTE ]really?
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 09-16-2005, 09:46 AM
stoxtrader stoxtrader is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 219
Default Re: 30/60 vets: Postflop estimate

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even knowing (suspecting) they always do it, makes it tough for me to play against them.

[/ QUOTE ]really?

[/ QUOTE ]

really.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 09-16-2005, 02:54 PM
Robb Robb is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1
Default Thoughts (long)

I haven’t done this kind of math in ten years so if the math guys could correct any mistakes in results (or notation if they feel like it).
______________________________________________

What I find difficult is there seems to be an inverse relationship between the size of the pot and the chance my middle pair is good. Unless the player is a complete newbie h/she has experienced that when pots get big, players don’t fold as much. Therefore bluffs work less often in big pots. So that’s always in the back of a player’s head during a hand. Players may ignore that from time to time but on average they don’t ignore the fact that players call down in big pots.

And in small pots I’m really not calling down/raising much in the scenario given because I don’t have odds. Recap:
The game is 30/60 online. Assume you have raised an UTG+1 limper with JJ in LP. BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop is A96 (barely coordinated and contains an Ace, rainbow)
You bet BB folds and UTG+1 check-raises.

UTG is not a maniac. What percent is JJ good here if UTG+1 is:
A) LA
B) LP
C) TA
D) Player is new to you

________________________
As stoxtrader pointed out you can’t look for a rule to apply to all situations. However, I’m often folding in that spot and I’m wondering if this might be a mistake.

I’m getting 9.5:1 after my opponent check-raises. Let’s use Windsor Kid’s 25% number vs. an unknown.
I’m winning
JJ is currently leading = CL(x)
Opponent sucks out = OS(x )
I win when leading = WWL(CL(x) * [1-OS(x)])
I’m losing
I suckout = IS(x)
I win = W(WWL(x) + IS(x))
I lose = L(1-W(x))

When I am ahead: So we estimate 25% of the time JJ is good. Of those times opponent will suckout between 20-25% given the hand range I input into twodimes. If opponent has specifically 78 then their suckout % is between 34 and 37 % depending on the suits. So for simplicity sake lets use 25%. Note: I excluded no-draw, no pair hands because I’ve excluded the Opponent classification of maniac from my original post. Though something like KQ isn’t out of the realm of possibility for simplicity’s sake I’ve excluded it. Ok……so when JJ is good it will only stay good 75% of the time meaning I will win 18.75% of the time when leading..
CL(.25) * [1- OS(.25)] = WWL(.1875)

When I am behind: I am ruling out AA altogether based on the action. Every other hand I will suckout out on about 9% of the time, except for AJ which cripples my outs so I’ll shade 9% down to 8.25%. So my total chance of winning the hand when I am behind or leading is 27%.
WWL(.1875) + IS(.0825) = W(.27)
L(.73) = I lose

_______________________________________________

Let’s assume in the hand that I always call down. And again for simplicity’s sake let’s assume opponent bets turn and river and I call. The pot would be 9.25 BB’s.

I win (.27 x 9.25 BB’s = 2.565 BB’s)
Since the question is: “Should I continue when I am check-raised on the flop?” the money already in the pot is not part of the equation. It’s gonzo. When I lose, I calculate only the money I put in the pot after I’m check-raised which equals 2.5 BB’s.
So I lose (.73 x 2.5 BB’s = 1.825 BB’s)

Total: +2.565-1.825= +.74 BB’s

I didn’t think an estimate that 25% of the time I’m good with JJ would be so clearly profitable to continue. So that’s a little eye opening for me.

Using the above calculations the breakeven point is ~ 17.25%.


If applied to a different scenario, a larger pot I think it becomes much more interesting because as I mentioned the opponents bluffing percentage goes down. Let’s say I there is another limper and the SB also called preflop.

I have JJ on the button. UTG limps , UTG+1 limps, I raise in MP. Blinds and limpers call. Pot = 10 SB’s. I bet the flop blinds fold UTG raises and UTG+1 folds. Now I’m getting 13:1 but it is more likely UTG has an Ace. Let’s say JJ is good here 15% of the time:
CL(.15) * [1- OS(.25)] = WWL(.1125)
WWL(.1125) + IS(.0825) = W(.1925)
L(.805) = I lose
I win (.1925 x 11 BB’s = 2.145 BB’s)
I lose (.8075 x 2.5 BB’s = 2.01875 BB’s)
Interestingly that’s close to breakeven.

When you factor in:
A) those times your opponent checks the turn or river
B) those times you can value bet
C) positive image reinforcement
D) information gained from seeing your opponents hand
I guess this really isn’t all that close.

Anyway this may be basic stuff for most but thought I’d share since it was a helpful exercise for me (assuming the calculations are correct).
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 09-16-2005, 03:38 PM
Robb Robb is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1
Default Re: 30/60 vets: Postflop estimate

[ QUOTE ]
A)50%
B)10%
C)25%
D)25%

[/ QUOTE ]
Looks about right, imo. Though I think even for an LA 50% is a little high. I might estimate 35-40%. Tough to say.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:53 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.