A Play I Make a Lot

[Exitonly]

I don't think you get thoes marginally +EV draws/crappy two pairs, often enouogh to make them profitable...

[betgo]

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but sometimes you hit and lose your stack to a better two pair. people get very excited about their 6:1 pot odds or whatever but don't think about the increased number of people means an increased chance their "big flop" is going to cost them their stack.

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A lot of times when there is some 7-way pot early in a tournament, there are a lot of bad loose players. You can play a weak speculative hand and double up if you hit. You may be better able to determine when to fold than your opponents. Therefore, calling with a suited gapper may be very EV+ even if it was EV- if everyone played perfectly.

For example, with deep money in a rebuy, playing 53s can be very EV+. People will go allin with top pair or an overpair, figuring people will call with weaker hands. So you can win a big pot with a straight, 2-pair, trips etc. Yeh, you can lose a big pot, but if you play well, this is very EV+.

[Exitonly]

Definitely not very +EV, if it is, it's marginally so, ,you dont hit hands very often, and when you do they're not always good.

[illegit]

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but sometimes you hit and lose your stack to a better two pair. people get very excited about their 6:1 pot odds or whatever but don't think about the increased number of people means an increased chance their "big flop" is going to cost them their stack.

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A lot of times when there is some 7-way pot early in a tournament, there are a lot of bad loose players. You can play a weak speculative hand and double up if you hit. You may be better able to determine when to fold than your opponents. Therefore, calling with a suited gapper may be very EV+ even if it was EV- if everyone played perfectly.

For example, with deep money in a rebuy, playing 53s can be very EV+. People will go allin with top pair or an overpair, figuring people will call with weaker hands. So you can win a big pot with a straight, 2-pair, trips etc. Yeh, you can lose a big pot, but if you play well, this is very EV+.

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The implied odds in multiway pots aren't as clear though, as you could get your miracle flop only to have one of the other speculative hands get their MORE miracle flop (say top 2 versus your bottom 2). Not to mention the inherent weakness of your hand coming back on later streets (getting counterfeited). In a heads-up situation playing these hands has more certain implied odds against a raise. You'll usually know when your opponent has an overpair and know that your hand is good on the flop, and be able to extract a lot of value. It's a lot more murky in a 6 way pot.

[schwza]

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weeeeeeeee...... maybe i'll get to play a non-nut draw out of position. awesome. or i'll flop 2-pair/trips 1 time in 29. yay. hope none of the 5 people in the pot flopped a set.

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Passing up +EV spots cause they are hard is not good. If you are good postflop these spots are +ev.

what am i missing? You win tournaments with non-nut draws and retarded 2 pairs.

-Jason

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consider the OP's hand (2 EP limps, CO raises 3x, button and SB call), and say it's a $100 tourney. do you call there with 83o? i would need a lot more hand than that to call. i'd fold QJo, for example. leak?

[rockythecat99]

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weeeeeeeee...... maybe i'll get to play a non-nut draw out of position. awesome. or i'll flop 2-pair/trips 1 time in 29. yay. hope none of the 5 people in the pot flopped a set.

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Passing up +EV spots cause they are hard is not good. If you are good postflop these spots are +ev.

what am i missing? You win tournaments with non-nut draws and retarded 2 pairs.

-Jason

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consider the OP's hand (2 EP limps, CO raises 3x, button and SB call), and say it's a $100 tourney. do you call there with 83o? i would need a lot more hand than that to call. i'd fold QJo, for example. leak?

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No one is advocating calling with 83o. But suited/unsuited one gappers for what 30 more chips is not bad at all. YOu can double or even triple up. If you don't hit you lost what 30 chips that in the grand scheme doesn't mean a damn thing.

[Whitey]

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Definitely not very +EV, if it is, it's marginally so, ,you dont hit hands very often, and when you do they're not always good

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But most of the time they are.

If your going to play top pair like the nuts with T8s then yes you should be folding these, I may even fold bottom two pair if doesnt feel right, but being the maths wiz you are(your a hell of a lot better at maths than I am) you have to agree with what Strassa said.

[badluckal]

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Blind/Implied Odds

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That is funny, I didn't realize that this situation is as difficult for others as it is for me. I am the OP in the original 94o post by the way. Thanks for going into such detail in the mathematical analysis.

And to add some corroboration to your theory about the suckouts making this only marginally +cEV, I got it all in with my 9's and 4's against KQo only to get sucked out on with the river Q.

Still, I think that there is an edge to be exploited here, because in low-mid buy-in tournaments there are an abundance of players that you can stack when they can't get away from top-pair or drawing hands here.

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Obviously, if I have 8Ts, or even 35s, this is a clear call.

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i would toss these.

is that a leak?

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If I had to only call a minraise from the blind, I was closing the action, and there were 2 others besides the minraiser in the pot, I'd call every time with any suited 1 gappers if I was bb.

[AtticusFinch]

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I don't think you get thoes marginally +EV draws/crappy two pairs, often enouogh to make them profitable...

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I suspect you do, but the variance is so huge it just doesn't seem like it.

I think that a MTT is precicely the scenario where you'd want to take these low-risk-high-variance shots.