Similar to HOH2 AA problem

[tiger7210]

I think its important to know how many chips the chipleaders actually had. If they are in the neighborhood of $200K, then I'm folding here as this is a sat. and not a reg. tourny and collecting chips is not of paramount importance and survival is. I also think looking at how short some of the other smaller stacks are is very important. You still have a lot of FE and 1st in vigorish is of extreme importance as 1 blind steal at this point can get you to a seat if others are also very short but the big stack will have great odds to call at this point and i'm not loving my JJ's all in in a 3 way pot.

[CieloAzor]

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I think you are a coinflip at best if you are called by the chip leader. Also, it is somewhat likely that you will be called by any two...

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How does that make sense?

After reading it once, it seemed like a pretty standard push. After reading it again, it's a very very easy push. The guy pushing to your right should be doing so with any two and you shouldn't expect a better hand to be behind you often. You're in 25th...I really doubt you're folding your way to victory and this situation is no less than great.

[badluckal]

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I think you are a coinflip at best if you are called by the chip leader. Also, it is somewhat likely that you will be called by any two...

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How does that make sense?



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There are two monster stacks behind him.

I think there is some chance that at least one of them will call with any two to take a chance at elimiating two players at the same time.

Additionally, I think there is another scenario where he will be facing two overcards if called by one or both of the monster stacks.

Since I don't know how either of the big stacks play, I can only generalize, and neither of these situations are terribly desireable late in a satellite where survival is paramount.

I think that he has a great chance of folding to the seat if he releases this hand and moves on.

I agree with you Badluckal. With two people in the hand (we have to count on CL to call here) JJ is still a good hand but one that can easy be overestimated, especially if your tournament life is at stack. I would fold this one waiting for a better opportunity. I would think that CL and the short stack has 2-3 overcards totally or amybe even a higher pair (which also turned out to be true) so i'm folding here waiting for a better chance.

i think you should have called the short stack's all in. That way if the chipleader called, you would have had a chance to fold on the flop when there was an Ace and CL showed aggression.

I had a similar situation, in the same tourney as you. my stack was 5bb's and blinds were killing me, UTG raised, i had JJ. i hoped for an AK or AQ and went all in. He had QQ.

[fnurt]

Calling is just an invitation for the big stack to push you off the hand. With a big stack sitting behind you, you either need to push or fold.