SNGPT says it's negEV....

[ZeroPointMachine]

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This is an auto fold. Yes, you are well ahead of his range, but you have to understand that when you lose here you are losing $11.50 in equity. When you win here you only have $15.00 equity in the tourney. If cutoff takes out the short stack your equity jumps up to $12.65.

Sometimes you are going to make the money as a short stack. This is not a crime. Trying to hard to avoid it is just giving money away.

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Care to justify that with something more than an assertion?

Here's my expanded analysis:

I like the $EV call number from SnGPT of 22.6% because BB will almost certainly fold, hoping you will bust. SB isn't going to call without a monster.

If you fold, there are several possibilities. Let's start by assuming that SB is a $22 weakie and will fold.

Then let's assume that BB always calls on pot odds, and is 50/50 in the hand. If he busts, your equity is 25.3%, if he doubles, your equity is 18.6%, the mean of which is 21.9%.

22.6% > 21.9%, so it looks like a call with those assumptions.

If BB calls sometimes and folds, sometimes, then the fold equity is a blend of 21.9% and the SnGPT number of 23.0%. This implies that the breakeven point is BB folding 63% of the time. That seems high, although this is a $22 so anything is possible. In any case, it seems a lot closer than "auto fold" to me. How do you arrive at "auto fold"?

eastbay

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Well, first of all I'm half asleep and misread the HH. I thought CO pushed. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

However, I still think your range for CO is too large given the big stack in the SB. CO has a hand that he likes against the small stack and I doubt it is T8s. Estimating how often the BB calls is of course a guess at best in a 22.

[eastbay]

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Well, first of all I'm half asleep and misread the HH. I thought CO pushed. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]


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That's ok, I thought he minraised. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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However, I still think your range for CO is too large given the big stack in the SB.


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Maybe right.

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CO has a hand that he likes against the small stack and I doubt it is T8s. Estimating how often the BB calls is of course a guess at best in a 22.

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All true. Seems like a reasonably close decision, all said.

eastbay

[tigerite]

I would call here, not push, just flat call.

If you just call, and BB calls:

The pot will be $2,185. The CO will be getting great pot odds on his hand when you push in your remaining $395 post-flop. If the flop comes K 9 4 rainbow can you fold to a bet from CO? If you fold, you have $395 remaining. If CO wins and BB is out, you're ITM but almost definitely 3rd. If you fold, CO loses, now you're the short stack, and almost done with only $395. If you call his bet (or he calls yours), you're getting 4.5:1 pot odds and you probably have the best hand. Just push pre-flop or fold. (I'd push).

If you and BB call, you have to push post-flop. Even if CO calls and beats you, you're something like 75% versus BB's random hand, so you'll still get third. So just push.

If you call and BB folds, then I could see folding post-flop to survive, but I still couldn't based on the pot odds I'm getting, and the fact that I'm probably the in the lead anyway.

[curtains]

btw I think calling is probably the best, but you basically cant fold on the flop, its mainly just to encourage the BB to come along for the ride.

[tigerite]

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btw I think calling is probably the best, but you basically cant fold on the flop, its mainly just to encourage the BB to come along for the ride.

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For sure. I call knowing I'm going to the felt either way, but knowing that a call is more likely to tempt the BB into coming along than if I push.

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btw I think calling is probably the best, but you basically cant fold on the flop, its mainly just to encourage the BB to come along for the ride.

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For sure. I call knowing I'm going to the felt either way, but knowing that a call is more likely to tempt the BB into coming along than if I push.

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On the flip side, if you push, there is a chance that the CO will fold. I'd guess that the BB is more likely to push in his remaining 130 chips with the blinds at 75/150 than CO would be to call the all-in.

[tigerite]

Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[GtrHtr]

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I would call here, not push, just flat call.

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This is correct to me. Also, its pretty easy to see why SNGPT says this is -EV.

[xLukex]

Yeah, call. If you push and BB folds you will make this face. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

If you get it all in on a good flop BB has to beat both of you to get you out in 4th.