Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

[RED FACE]

You played poker instead of playing math - great fold. You saved yourself 16bb's. Make notes on your opponent. The size of your raise defined his hand for you pretty well although he's short so it still may be hard to tell without more info on him. If you think you could've accomplished the same thing by betting less then you should've as the only point of your raise at that time was to get info imo-really you want to bet enough to make him 3bet a monster but not enough so he folds a weaker(AT) hand. If I'm willing to fold this hand on the flop I raise less - just over a min raise.

[tripp0807]

[ QUOTE ]
You played poker instead of playing math - great fold. You saved yourself 16bb's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nonsense. Complete ignorance of the math aspects of poker is a surefire way to lose.

$5 into a $28 pot with 2 cards to come while holding AA? Folding here is absurd regardless of reads in a cash game.

[ QUOTE ]
You played poker instead of playing math - great fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought this was sarcastic when I first read it.

You are the definition of pot-stuck here. Let's look at the math.

You're getting about 6:1 on your money for the call. If you're behind, you're a 10:1 dog. If you're ahead, you're a 10:1 favorite.

When you're behind, 10 times you will lose $5, one time you will win $28, for a net loss of $22, or a net loss of $2 per hand.

When you're ahead, 10 times you will win $28, one time you will lose $5, for a net profit of $275 or a net profit of $25 per hand.

Now let's assume that 90 percent of the time, villain does indeed have a set.

Nine hands out of ten, you will lose $2 net. One hand out of ten, you will profit $25 net. It's a net profit of $7, or $.70 per hand. So getting 6:1 on your money is plenty -- even the math dictates a call!

When villain is that short in the stack, you've just got to decide after his flop bet if you're willing to commit if villain pushes. This was a cold-deck hand, but you can't fold it after what you've already put in.

Hey, I had KK with a flop of K64 yesterday, got it all in for $170 against AA and villain sucked an A out on the river to beat me. You'll have to do the same in this case.

[RED FACE]

I can't agree on your 10:1 favorite number if ahead. 7.6:1 if villain has JJ and much worse is villain has a str8 draw. I think this is correct.

If villain has JJ, he's drawing to 2 outs and hero is thus a 10:1 favorite. And do you really put villain on J9? Hero described him as a straightforward player, not loose. Would he call a 4x raise with J9 out of position with only half a stack? I guess you never know in this donk-laden world.

[Isura]

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You played poker instead of playing math - great fold

[/ QUOTE ]

With enough information, it's ALL math.

[RED FACE]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You played poker instead of playing math - great fold

[/ QUOTE ]

With enough information, it's ALL math.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's true. This auto call stuff is nonsense. If the info is villain has a set he needs to win about twice as much as he actually would if he sucks out. I think if this info is right 90% of the time calling is still at least a slight loser. The break even point may be around 85%-just guessing.

[poboy]

When I first read this I thought you were joking, after reading your other posts I realize you're not. You can't really believe this is a good fold? Keep in mind this is SSNL and villian will have overcards,TP, or some other nonsense as often as he'll have the set. JMO