omg full house!

[W. Deranged]

You're only losing to AA, KK, JJ, and the case 6. The big pairs all seem pretty unlikely because you'd probably have seen a pre-flop raise. Loose passive players might slowplay a hand like AA here, but usually they get aggressive a bit earlier than the turn. I tend to notice AA slowplays to either go for the limp-reraise pre-flop or an aggressive move on the flop. Very few will take this line with KK because people don't like giving cheap cards for opponents to hit As. JJ is possible but it's not that likely.

So I'm most worried about the case 6. But it is the case card. Who knows.

I think raising the river is definitely right. Even risking 2 to win 1, the raise is good, as I have to think you're ahead at least 65% of the time. If three-bet, calling the three-bet is probably what I'd do, but I think capping is probably pretty close.


Three-betting the turn should be considered. I tend to like your line, though, as I don't want to fold, don't want to spew against a hand like A6, and am happy to let my opponent continue to be a J that doesn't have that many outs. Even if the third 6 doesn't come, I'd consider raising a lot of safe river cards depending on your read.

[kpux]

[ QUOTE ]
Three-betting the turn should be considered. I tend to like your line, though, as I don't want to fold, don't want to spew against a hand like A6, and am happy to let my opponent continue to be a J that doesn't have that many outs. Even if the third 6 doesn't come, I'd consider raising a lot of safe river cards depending on your read.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think raising the river is superior to three-betting the turn. I get the same amount from him when I am ahead, and there is a better chance that he calls me down with a J. I think. More thoughts later, time to get wasted.

and i wonder why i bother to write 3 replies when deranged will just do it all in one whole piece of goodness....

so yeha...what he said.