Variance at Micro Limits

[VoraciousReader]

I don't want to offend you but this:

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I've been playing for three years; I started at $0.10/$0.25 games and paid a "tuition" of about $1000 before I started winning. I've got a few hundred hours of live ring game and tournament play under my belt...I've read a few books including both the Super/System ones, a couple Sklansky titles, and one that specifically covered online tournaments.

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made me want to cry. A thousand dollars down and you haven't spent 25 dollars and a few hours of your life to read Small Stakes Hold Em? (Actually it's more than a few hours, since I review and study it....but anyway...)

We can't all be MilesDyson. I think you are doing yourself a huge injustice if you don't immediately buy this and read it.

[Vex]

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Usually this is going to be the case with hands like 87o, J7s, Q4s, A6o, etc. Hands that look like they will show a profit but end up losing to better kickers or flop marginal draws too often.

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From memory (I'm posing a bit over lunch at work and don't have my database handy) my VP$IP is around 24%. Most of my loose plays are not hand selection problems but position problems; for example, I know that I try to steal the blinds with any two far too often -- to the point that a few perceptive opponents have twigged to it and will reraise with any two, usually resulting in me tucking tail and mucking after the flop completely misses me. And, if I find that a dry run of cards has me sitting idle for too long, I'll sometimes throw in a raise with two trash cards from under the gun, or limping in out of position with a small suited connector. Those boredom plays don't pay off enough for it to be worthwhile. I need more patience. At least I have an idea of what my problem is.

I would like to discuss blind stealing, blind defense more as well, and later I can dig up stats and post them.

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Also make sure you are rarely if ever cold calling raises preflop as this will again get you in a lot of trouble.

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My PFR stat is >10%, which is significantly higher than all of the guys I've logged with 500 or more hands. I open-raise a lot. I also limp in with family pots.

I think I probably do call a bit too often in raised pots, but usually I'm the fourth or more in.

What's really been costing me is limping in in late position behind three or four other players with hands that need good implied odds, then either the button or the blinds raise it up. I think I'm playing it right when it goes unraised, but it's being raised far more often than I expect it to. I'm not sure what exactly is wrong there, but I think that the preflop raise actually decreases the implied odds. The way people play in these games, they almost always call the raise, then are too eager to fold postflop. So, the pot odds go up but the implied odds go down. Eh, maybe I'll figure it out in the next 2000 hands.

[deception5]

Ahh, that makes sense. If you're limping hands like JTo in early position you are going to be slowly bleeding chips away. Yes you need to have patience - I'm surprised you get bored playing that many tables.

As far as limping in late position after and it getting raised behind you - as long as you didn't know that player was going to raise this is ok. Call and hope to flop a monster [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[MrWookie47]

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From what I understand, your variance is generally the same and doesn't change that much with winrate. That being said, if you are not as big of a winner, you will have more losing downswings (If I win at 3BB/100, and you win at 1BB/100, over 5000 hands I make 100 more BB. So assuming our variance is the same, and we get the same cards, a 100BB downswing for me will be a 200BB downswing for you) Just an example, let me know if it doesn't make sense

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If you are a 1bb/100 player you will have a lot more varience than a 3bb/100 player. I believe that if you are a 1bb/100 player you have somewhere in the ballpark of a 15% chance of having a 75BB downswing at the start of every session.

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This is only partially correct. Your variance, which is the square of your standard deviation/100 is largely independent of win rate. However, a player with a true 3 BB/100 win rate is going to experience fewer and and smaller downswings than a 1 BB/100 winner if they have the same variance.

[Vex]

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As far as limping in late position after and it getting raised behind you - as long as you didn't know that player was going to raise this is ok. Call and hope to flop a monster [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Yeah, that's the problem. I don't know they're going to raise it, but they do it surprisingly often. Either I'm expecting them to play passively much more than they actually do, or people are raising too often in those situations. One way, I am leaking; the other way, I am failing to exploit suboptimal play by others.

I can't put my finger on which it is; all I know is, it doesn't feel right.

By playing so many tables at once, I can't play the player so much; I have to play the table.

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As far as limping in late position after and it getting raised behind you - as long as you didn't know that player was going to raise this is ok. Call and hope to flop a monster [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Yeah, that's the problem. I don't know they're going to raise it, but they do it surprisingly often. Either I'm expecting them to play passively much more than they actually do, or people are raising too often in those situations. One way, I am leaking; the other way, I am failing to exploit suboptimal play by others.

I can't put my finger on which it is; all I know is, it doesn't feel right.

By playing so many tables at once, I can't play the player so much; I have to play the table.

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I would really suggest dropping down to 3-4 tables and really working on your reads. Especially as you move up I think that being able to successfully play more than that is really the exception. I think your win rate will improve dramatically, and you will be able to really think about your decisions and actions. It's fine if you need to clear a bonus or something but overall I think it will help your game a lot.

[Vex]

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I would really suggest dropping down to 3-4 tables and really working on your reads. Especially as you move up I think that being able to successfully play more than that is really the exception. I think your win rate will improve dramatically, and you will be able to really think about your decisions and actions. It's fine if you need to clear a bonus or something but overall I think it will help your game a lot.

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Well, we're getting sidetracked a bit -- it's not about getting the best possible bb/100 right now; it's about finishing 10K hands with an overall profit; next step is to repeat with a higher bar. I'm challenging myself but I've set the bar low. Like a game of Limbo, the plan is to increase the challenge until I find my optimal level of stakes, speed of play, and so forth to see what I can do in terms of dollars per hour. I know I'm not playing my best; the important thing to me is that I'm utilizing discipline, playing every day, logging my results, being honest with myself, and above all being consistent.

To bring things back on track -- if I halve my table count, I'd need to double my bb/100 to have the same $/hr. But, how doable is that, really? I'll assume that it is very doable if I'm actually profitable for only 1 bb/100 playing like this. But if I'm actually good for 2 bb/100, doubling that would be much more difficult. Probably the best approach there is to slow down and work for a 50% increase, then move up in stakes.

What are your thoughts on downswings, with respect to multi-tabling? Given that playing fewer tables will increase bb/100, and others have said that higher bb/100 equates to downswings that don't dip so far down, would one still expect swings of 40-60 bets regularly but a more steep upward trend -- or would you expect that playing for quality instead of quantity might also squelch the amplitude of the swings themselves?

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Well, we're getting sidetracked a bit -- it's not about getting the best possible bb/100 right now; it's about finishing 10K hands with an overall profit; next step is to repeat with a higher bar. I'm challenging myself but I've set the bar low. Like a game of Limbo, the plan is to increase the challenge until I find my optimal level of stakes, speed of play, and so forth to see what I can do in terms of dollars per hour. I know I'm not playing my best; the important thing to me is that I'm utilizing discipline, playing every day, logging my results, being honest with myself, and above all being consistent.

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Yes it all depends on what your ultimate goals are. You seem like a winner at the .5/1 doing what you're doing, but the question is how big of a winner, which I think is what you want to figure out. But I think if you take a step back, and really learn how to beat the games for a better winrate you will be able to 1) Move up to higher limits or 2) Make a higher winrate when you go back to 8 tabling. I guess you will know sooner what your winrate is, but my guess is that if you can't beat .5/1 for more than 2BB/100, you will have a very hard time moving up in stakes. Maybe it is b/c your poker skills are not good enough, maybe it is b/c you are n ot able to get the reads that you require whne playing eight tables.

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What are your thoughts on downswings, with respect to multi-tabling? Given that playing fewer tables will increase bb/100, and others have said that higher bb/100 equates to downswings that don't dip so far down, would one still expect swings of 40-60 bets regularly but a more steep upward trend -- or would you expect that playing for quality instead of quantity might also squelch the amplitude of the swings themselves?

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I think as your winrate increases you will not have as big of downswings. They will still occur though, as a big component of short term results is just luck of the cards.

[Vex]

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You should post your stats.

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Ok. Whaddya think?

player_name OurHero
site_abbrev
game_level
num_sessions 47
won_amt 107.5
hands_played 6258
hours_played 112.3333
bb_100_sum 1.7178
vpip_sum 25.5673
pfr_sum 10.2269
wsd_sum 53.7801
vpip_sb 37.3494
sf_all 29.5781
sf_no_blind 22.6766
fold_sb_steal 73.3333
fold_bb_steal 73.6842
fold_bb_steal_hu 76.1905
sb_defended 12
sb_def_fold 50
sb_def_won_no_sd 16.6667
sb_def_wsd 33.3333
sb_def_won_wsd 100
bb_defended 15
bb_def_fold 46.6667
bb_def_won_no_sd 40
bb_def_wsd 13.3333
bb_def_won_wsd 50
steal_att 32.9787
sa_no_flop 29.0323
sa_fold 24.7312
sa_won_no_sd 48.3871
sa_wsd 26.8817
sa_won_wsd 48
won_wsf 30.6861
amt_won 107.5
wr_100 1.7178
wr_bb 1.7178
wsd 31.4425
won_wsd 53.7801
pfr 10.2269
lcpf 0.0479
fa_raise 4.8438
fa_bet 43.5938
fa_call 10.1563
fa_check 22.8125
fa_cr 0
fa_fold 3.5937
fa_no_flop 15
p_actions 6524
p_raise 10.1778
p_call 18.4243
p_check 5.5334
p_fold 65.8645
p_af 0.5524
f_actions 2487
f_raise 6.5541
f_bet 21.6727
f_call 19.2199
f_check 30.3579
f_fold 22.1954
f_af 1.4686
t_actions 1541
t_raise 7.2031
t_bet 24.6593
t_call 16.8073
t_check 30.889
t_fold 20.4413
t_af 1.8958
r_actions 933
r_raise 6.4309
r_bet 27.3312
r_call 17.7921
r_check 32.5831
r_fold 15.8628
r_af 1.8976
tot_actions 11485
tot_raise 8.6896
tot_bet 10.222
tot_call 18.3283
tot_check 16.5085
tot_fold 46.2516
tot_af 1.67
pfr_won_no_sd 33.4375
pfr_fold_no_sd 27.8125
pfr_wsd 38.75
pfr_won_wsd 55.6452
fbet_won_no_sd 30.5164
fbet_fold_no_sd 16.7449
fbet_wsd 52.7387
fbet_won_wsd 54.5994
tbet_won_no_sd 28.1938
tbet_fold_no_sd 4.8458
tbet_wsd 66.9604
tbet_won_wsd 56.25
rbet_won_no_sd 19.398
rbet_fold_no_sd 2.0067
rbet_wsd 78.5953
rbet_won_wsd 77.4468
pfc_won_no_sd 10.625
pfc_fold_no_sd 63.0208
pfc_wsd 26.3542
pfc_won_wsd 54.1502
fcall_won_no_sd 7.9096
fcall_fold_no_sd 53.9548
fcall_wsd 38.1356
fcall_won_wsd 60.7407
tcall_won_no_sd 3.0928
tcall_fold_no_sd 30.9278
tcall_wsd 65.9794
tcall_won_wsd 47.6563
rcall_won_no_sd 0
rcall_fold_no_sd 0.7143
rcall_wsd 99.2857
rcall_won_wsd 26.6187
fold_to_rb 50
wf_no_fold 15.1167
wf_pf 68.6641
wf_flop 8.8207
wf_turn 5.0336
wf_river 2.365
cr_times 16
cr_pct_act 0.3225
cr_flop 0
cr_turn 100
cr_river 0

[Felipe]

ewww