Marginal Hand #4 Playing a passive table - Page 8

MrWookie47 · #71 04-15-2005, 04:50 PM

If you actually give yourself any outs or fractions of outs for a J, betting here could be +EV. That said, I don't think they're worth anything. That puts betting the turn as -EV.

grjr · #72 04-15-2005, 04:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No, I don't agree with them. The pot is already protected from someone who has a single overcard to a pair of 9's and a single club, assuming no one has an ace. They are wrong to call a single bet. A hand like K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] X has only about 3 outs, getting at the very best 10:1, and that's assuming that no one has an A. I think you want them calling, because they are making a mistake to do so. Any of your J "outs" you claim to be buying with your raise are worth nowhere near a whole SB.

There aren't really any hands here that'd be correct to call one bet, but wrong to call two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget that this isn't the 2+2 table we're playing on here. Do you really think your average lowest limit Party player is counting his outs on the flop? I think you sometimes have to dumb down to the competition. Maybe I'm wrong though.

grjr · #73 04-15-2005, 04:59 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG+2 posts a blind of $0.5.
1 fold, Hero calls, UTG+2 (poster) checks, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, SB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, SB raises, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (12 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero ??

Feh, so we whiffed badly on the river. What do we do?

davelin · #74 04-15-2005, 05:04 PM

I'm check/folding.

jrz1972 · #75 04-15-2005, 05:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No, I don't agree with them. The pot is already protected from someone who has a single overcard to a pair of 9's and a single club, assuming no one has an ace. They are wrong to call a single bet. A hand like K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] X has only about 3 outs, getting at the very best 10:1, and that's assuming that no one has an A. I think you want them calling, because they are making a mistake to do so. Any of your J "outs" you claim to be buying with your raise are worth nowhere near a whole SB.

There aren't really any hands here that'd be correct to call one bet, but wrong to call two.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. If I knew that a bunch of people would call two cold, then yeah sure I would raise the flop for value. But at least in my experience even Party .5/1 fish can usually find the fold button if it's two bets to them and they missed the flop.

With my huge draw, I want to give people an excuse to hang around, so I don't want to make them have to call two cold on the flop.

If somebody raises, I'll probably 3-bet depending on exactly how the action plays out, but I don't really want to drive anybody out of the pot at this point.

Also, the turn bet is a clear error, but that's already been established.

jrz1972 · #76 04-15-2005, 05:09 PM

I'm check-folding the river and looking forward to your explanation for why you bet out.

car ramrod · #77 04-15-2005, 05:11 PM

Now you have to check, and fold if bet into.

Nate tha' Great · #78 04-15-2005, 05:14 PM

Somebody asked me to weigh in here; I haven't read any of the other responses.

The table conditions are right for an early limp, especially with the presence of the poster, who further helps protect you from the unlikely event of an isolation raise, and adds some dead money to the pot. Also, it doesn't sound like your opponents are going to play very well after the flop.

That having been said, I think this hand is just a little bit too weak here, and folding is the correct play by a small margin, probably on the order of 0.03-0.05 BB. However, I would have no problem with playing J9s here.

Entity · #79 04-15-2005, 05:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Does anyone else check the turn here?

[/ QUOTE ]

*grunching*

I like the turn bet for sure. So far, the SBs play reeks of 86s to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, the turn bet is pretty bad. HU I'd make it but you don't have folding equity against one guy who called two cold on the flop and another who led into you and called your raise, and you aren't getting value odds on a bet.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you think "pretty bad" is kind of a strong term here considering the flush draw, dblgut, and maybe a jack?

[/ QUOTE ]

A Jack isn't much of an out here given the flop action, so we're talking an error of around half a BB, on the average. Given an expectation of 1.5BB/table/her, that's about 20min worth of work wasted, so yes, it's fairly significant. You lose .02BB when both players call and no one checkraises, and .68BB when one player calls and you don't get checkraised. Since you have to call a raise, you lose 1.36BB when checkraised and only one person calls.

This, of course, assumes there isn't a higher flush draw out there from UTG+2, which is a reasonable possibility. When that happens you're losing a lot more on your turn bet.

Rob

MrWookie47 · #80 04-15-2005, 05:22 PM

The point I forgot to make when I typed that last sentence is that I think my opponents would be more inclined to make the mistake of calling one, but by raising, I'm encouraging them to make the correct play. I don't know about you, but I'd rather have my opponents making mistakes.