Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Tournament Poker > One-table Tournaments

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #21  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:50 PM
tigerite tigerite is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 360
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:56 PM
GtrHtr GtrHtr is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 350
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
I would call here, not push, just flat call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is correct to me. Also, its pretty easy to see why SNGPT says this is -EV.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:59 PM
xLukex xLukex is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Posts: 572
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

Yeah, call. If you push and BB folds you will make this face. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

If you get it all in on a good flop BB has to beat both of you to get you out in 4th.
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:04 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance (edit: my estimate is 25%, given this is a $22) the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:07 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

Good analysis AggieYank. This type of thinking is much more valuable than EV estimates spit out by SnGPT, which are too sensitive to assumptions (GIGO) and can't cover all the variables.

To me, this is a "must play" for the reasons AggieYank put forth, but it is not a push, not yet at least. If you push now, BB could fold in the hope you will get knocked out. He may be unlikely to fold, but it also may be that's his only chance if you push and he has two worthless cards.
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:15 PM
Sykes Sykes is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 231
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed.

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

[/ QUOTE ]


Getting 3.3 to 1 on his money there is not a single hand he'd fold here, not even 32o and I'm willing to wager that his hand is a lot better than 32o (or other random junk) since BB is shortstacked (2xbb) and they're on the bubble. Honestly, I don't expect anything less than Ax+/K9+/QT+/22+.


I actually think it's correct to fold here, but I'd never do it. I'd call and hope BB calls also.
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:16 PM
Jbrochu Jbrochu is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 51
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
This is an auto fold. Yes, you are well ahead of his range, but you have to understand that when you lose here you are losing $11.50 in equity. When you win here you only have $15.00 equity in the tourney. If cutoff takes out the short stack your equity jumps up to $12.65.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like folding because the cutoff's range is very large, and even though the BB has a random hand he could easily double-up and now his stack size is close to yours.

I call this. If the BB calls I'll try to check it down unless I make trips or better on the flop then I push.

If the BB folds then I'm pushing any flop that doesn't have an A.
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:18 PM
Sykes Sykes is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 231
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis AggieYank. This type of thinking is much more valuable than EV estimates spit out by SnGPT, which are too sensitive to assumptions (GIGO) and can't cover all the variables.

To me, this is a "must play" for the reasons AggieYank put forth, but it is not a push, not yet at least. If you push now, BB could fold in the hope you will get knocked out. He may be unlikely to fold, but it also may be that's his only chance if you push and he has two worthless cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm BB and I see Button push, I fold any hand that's not KK/AA and I'd be taking my time to call with KK.
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:23 PM
eastbay eastbay is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 647
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis AggieYank. This type of thinking is much more valuable than EV estimates spit out by SnGPT, which are too sensitive to assumptions (GIGO) and can't cover all the variables.

To me, this is a "must play" for the reasons AggieYank put forth, but it is not a push, not yet at least. If you push now, BB could fold in the hope you will get knocked out. He may be unlikely to fold, but it also may be that's his only chance if you push and he has two worthless cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? I think your action reads need a little work. If you push, BB is folding effectively 100% of the time.

eastbay
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:24 PM
Sykes Sykes is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 231
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis AggieYank. This type of thinking is much more valuable than EV estimates spit out by SnGPT, which are too sensitive to assumptions (GIGO) and can't cover all the variables.

To me, this is a "must play" for the reasons AggieYank put forth, but it is not a push, not yet at least. If you push now, BB could fold in the hope you will get knocked out. He may be unlikely to fold, but it also may be that's his only chance if you push and he has two worthless cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? I think your action reads need a little work. If you push, BB is folding effectively 100% of the time.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

except this time, right?
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:11 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.