How sure do you have to be?

[TStoneMBD]

i highly respect your read here, and as a fellow live player i find it reasonable to consider folding this hand. however, i have a feeling that you are just on postive tilt because you are running so well and therefore are overvaluing your ability to read hands. there have been quite a few times in the past 6 months where ive been on a 50-100bb rush, but its mainly attributed to a good run of cards along with bad players at the table. i may have played some great poker, but i would hardly consider myself jordan.

[JihadOnTheRiver]

TStone, tx. I think you are 100% right about the positive tilt issue, and I remember seriously considering that while I was making my decision. I was, at that time, basically just showing off. I'm obviously exaggerating about the Jordan thing, and I know as well as the next person that my cards were doing most of the talking. But I went with it. I think I played it improperly, but got lucky.

-Durka

[bobbyi]

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I immediately put him on QQ-AA, nothing less (I won't go into details, but I'm decently sure he's not just being creative)


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This is utterly ridiculous. If he's at all good like you say there are a billion hands he's going to raise 5 limpers with. I don't know what led you to QQ-AA but that's pretty bad poker. With weaker players sometimes you can know because you know what they raise/dont raise with.

[/ QUOTE ]
I know you mainly play on the internet, but in live poker we have physical reads. They can be a big part of the game. In fact, they are the whole subject of the hand he posted. If you can't understand why it is not contradictory to say both that someone is a solid player and that you have a read that he has a big pair, then I don't know how to explain it to you except to assure you that it is in no way "utterly ridiculous".

[bicyclekick]

thx bobbyi...

I see what you're saying. I'm not saying it needs to be contradictory, I'm just a little skeptical of how you could get such a read from a solid player. Most solid players aren't goign to be giving off such obvious tells. Least not the players I call solid. That's what makes them solid, no?

[bobbyi]

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Most solid players aren't goign to be giving off such obvious tells. Least not the players I call solid. That's what makes them solid, no?

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I'd agree with you if he didn't explicitly say that "I've watched him closely in several hands and made strangely good reads every time" and if the entire remainder of the hand didn't describe the kid giving off huge obvious tells (looking away from the flop, "you don't have a ten", etc.). It seems pretty clear that this kid is eminently readable so it is very possible that he was transparently holding a big pair when he raised he preflop. If you want to say that this means that the kid isn't "solid", then I agree; I shouldn't have used that word.

[bicyclekick]

Ok, we're on the same page now.

[elysium]

hi jihad

call him down.

[DcifrThs]

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Long time, first time. Philly, MS 10-20 live. Dream game, on a rush of a lifetime and playing it well. +45 BB in 7-8 hours. New young kid sits down, after a 3 or 4 rounds its obvious hes the only other person at the table that can tie their shoes without assistance. I've watched him closely in several hands and made strangely good reads every time. Nobody else matters...

I'm UTG with 77 and limp expecting limp-a-thon. All 5 behind me limp along to kid on button who raises. I immediately put him on QQ-AA, nothing less (I won't go into details, but I'm decently sure he's not just being creative).

[/ QUOTE ]

there are a lot more hands he should be raising with here than AA-QQ without "being creative"

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Blinds call, everybody else along.

Flop QTT, rainbow.

I'm looking at him as his eyes immediately dart to the TV when he sees this flop, I'm thinking QQ, almost no way Tx. Checks around to him, he gives the classic woe-is-me theirs a pair on the board and I don't like it look, then checks. Now I'm sure.

Turn.... 7.....crap

I check, around to him, he bets, SB calls quick (theres one of the tens) I raise. He hems and haws, says "I don't believe you have the ten, reraise." Wow...SAG quality. SB folds.

Now my question. How sure do I have to be to fold this? I'm pretty sure I'm right, but jesus, how can I let it go? Should I call and lead out and wait for the fireworks? Reraise and watch them now?

PS, don't comment on the PF limp. I don't care. Results tomorrow....

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i'll comment on the preflop limp...its not optional...and not close...you must limp or raise that...limppreferably.

on the turn you do anything but FOLD!!! he could easily check KK or AA along with QQ...but all in all i agree its quite likely he has QQ given his tv darting eyes and demeanor...maybe even TT...

i just dont let boats go to this stuff...its a mistake, sue me and im not a perfect player but we're seeing a showdown...

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

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thx bobbyi...

I see what you're saying. I'm not saying it needs to be contradictory, I'm just a little skeptical of how you could get such a read from a solid player. Most solid players aren't goign to be giving off such obvious tells. Least not the players I call solid. That's what makes them solid, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

yup...my range from a TIGHT solid player goes AK, AKs, AQs, AJs, ATs, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT.

-Barron

[Rex Bluett]

for one bet just call to see a showdown we're not supposed to be psychic