Another tough AI call decision early - Page 3

arcticfox · #21 10-02-2005, 07:11 PM

You have a lot more hours online than me so maybe my read is wrong but I've found that an instant raise is usually a very strong hand where-as a long pause shows weakness, apart from players who know this and deliberately do the opposite! Do you think an instant all-in as a sign of weakness then?

sirio11 · #22 10-02-2005, 07:14 PM

In this case, my online read was, this guy has AA and it's afraid.

arcticfox · #23 10-02-2005, 07:21 PM

OK, but that was my sense - you are a dog to anyone who moves all-in instantly given your hand, even if a very marginal dog to AA without a diamond!

adanthar · #24 10-02-2005, 07:32 PM

It'd be an instamuck with AsAc, and I'm folding this too after a bit of thought, but I'd call either with the Ad.

nath · #25 10-02-2005, 07:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In this case, my online read was, this guy has AA and it's afraid.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is about what I thought-- problem is you don't know whether or not it includes Ad. But even if it doesn't, it's still a very close gamble.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Td 8d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Kd 493 49.80 497 50.20 0 0.00 0.498
As Ac 497 50.20 493 49.80 0 0.00 0.502

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Td 8d 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Kd 142 14.34 848 85.66 0 0.00 0.143
As Ad 848 85.66 142 14.34 0 0.00 0.857

And this is where I start thinking "don't take close gambles for lots of chips very early on" and such-- especially since the possibility of his Ad would make it not close at all.

ClaytonN · #26 10-02-2005, 08:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You realize that in this flop Kd8c is a better hand than AcAs, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm I have Kd8c being 49.8%

So, if your definition of "better hand" means you've been winning lots of coinflips lately, then I'm all for it.[/sacrasm]

Kd8c is a hand I am raising with here, not calling a raise. Instamuckification.

sirio11 · #27 10-02-2005, 08:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I have Kd8c being 49.8%

[/ QUOTE ]

you're right, I just considered the 14 outs at the time in the table.

#28 10-02-2005, 09:42 PM

i think it depends on the player... If someone has the nuts he usually wants to extract the most amount of money out of you, or is thinking that at least. So one, he has to think about how to do this such as raising a little on the flop, flat calling, or going all in right away. Nobody ever goes all in on the flop w/ the nuts because they want to get paid off. They'd prob just do a mini raise or flat call and try and get you to commit more chips on the turn. As for tells when someone makes an instant bet/raise its because they aren't thinking. Their mind is set on one play and its just reaction. I see a lot of fast betting representing bluffs because they know its the only way they can win the pot. However, if its a bad player he may see it as the best hand and just shove in his chips not thinking about extracting value but I doubt thats the case. So my first reaction is that he has a hand that doesn't want action such as the AA wo/ a diamond or a baby flush, two pair or set therefore having no flush draw himself and just wanting to drag the pot. Therefore, I would be pretty confident that you have the 14 outs you think you have, thus being even money with the exception of a set or T8. Or he could be on a naked flush draw with the A of diamonds and you'd be a substantial favorite such as AK. Then based on what you know of the player assign some percentages on what you think that person will have and act. If you don't know your player well enough to give an educated guess I think the decision on calling or folding depends on the stage of the tournament and how weak/strong your table is etc... If the table is strong it could be a great opportunity to double up. Since its early I would probably pass not because your getting bad value but because i hope i can get my money in better.