Another tough AI call decision early

[C-Dog]

Maybe not instamuck, but pretty damn quickly for me at least.

C-Dog

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I dont see why this one is so tough? Looks like an instamuck to me.

C-Dog

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If you have AsAc instead of the Kd8c, you call? or it's an instamuck also?

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I would have raised more pf, but yes, I'd muck it with that flop and that much of a reraise. I couldn't think of a single head besides a bluff or a semi bluff that I am ahead of here. I can get rid of aces if the flop looks like a loser for me, I'm never married to a hand.

My guess is he either has the ace of diamonds and a pair, or he has 2 low diamonds and wants to end the hand right here.

[sirio11]

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there is an OK chance I am ahead

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what's your definition of being ahead? If you are 54% to win in the flop, are you ahead?

You realize that in this flop Kd8c is a better hand than AcAs, right?

[Crispy]

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That's enough w/ the instamucking... hands recquire some thought.. i don't think anyn of those situations are that clear...

even w/ AA no diamond, i might be calling there, you're 30% vs a semibluffed flush draw.

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Alright, this is true you are 30% against a semibluffed flushdraw. BUt this early, do you really think the chances of him being on a semibluffed flush draw are that good? I could possibly seem him doing this withAd and pair on the board, or set, two pair. But against any of those hands with Kd8c you are set up to lose imo. I think that in the later levels of a tournament I could see a call here, but this early and without any good reads I think we can safely fold here and look to find a better spot.

[arcticfox]

I think you've got to fold this, your best hope is he has top pair non diamond kicker which you are favourite over, or he has Ad and a kicker worse than an 8. You are a marginal dog to a hand like AdJs and a huge dog to a set, 2 pair or made baby flush. I always think bad players push good hands that are scared of being drawn out by the flush. I don't see him pushing with a bluff given how small the pot is, he has something and if he plays this badly you will find better spots to get his chips than a likely coinflip at best.

[nath]

This is a bizarre betting sequence. UTG limps then goes all in for at least 10x the pot?
My initial instinct is that he has AA, probably with the Ad, and is trying to be all tricky and clever, enamored with his own play. "I limped aces preflop and got someone to bet! Now I have a flush draw! All in!"

I realize that doesn't help you put him on a range, but it's such a donk way to bet the hand that I assume he's a donk and would play like this.

I'd muck because I'm not finding a hand he has that makes this better than a marginal gamble, and it could be quite a bit worse.

[C-Dog]

It would depend on his holding which hand is better. I am not sure I would rather have middle pair and 1 card flush draw vs an overpair against someone willing to make a ridiculous push here. I think both are folds though. I would not be surprised at his move by a lot of TP hands AT or KT maybe.

C-Dog

[sirio11]

One more thing on the hand, he instantly went all in, a online tell to consider here.

[arcticfox]

OK, an instant all-in makes the nuts more likely. Maybe its better to fold and wait to stack this donkey later, but I still think it is a very unusual way of playing AA or KK and its unlikey that somone with less than QQ calls him. Its over a 100-1 shot that you have either of those 2 hands when he has AA so thats why I think a lower pocket pair is more likely, but the instant all-in tells you that he loves his hand, but he may love AK, JJ and TT too!

[sirio11]

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OK, an instant all-in makes the nuts more likely.

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Really? I think when people flop the nuts, usually are kind of surprised and take some seconds to make their move.