reverse bad beat - just how big of a longshot did I hit?

[DrewOnTilt]

I'm curious as to how big of a suckout I pulled on this hand.

I held 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Flop was 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

The suckout victim held 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for a flopped eights full over sevens. I caught runner runner nines to win the pot with nines full [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I figure that to win this pot, I had to catch one of the following:
runner runner 9s
runner runner 10s
runner runner 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
runner runner 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Did I miss anything on what I needed to catch? And the odds of this happening were what - one in 1500 or so?

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I figure that to win this pot, I had to catch one of the following:
runner runner 9s
runner runner 10s
runner runner 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
runner runner 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Did I miss anything on what I needed to catch? And the odds of this happening were what - one in 1500 or so?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not even close -- it's much lower.

You got all the possibilities tho. We note that since they're mutually exclusive, we can calculate the individual probabilities and add them together. 45 cards are left.

2 9's: (3/45)*(2/44)
2 10's: same
each str8 flush: (2/45)*(1/45)

2*(3/45)*(2/44) + 2*(2/45)*(1/45) = .008

About 1 in 125

[SpaceAce]

You guys are both forgetting running sevens which would give the hero four sevens with a ten kicker.

SpaceAce

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are both forgetting running sevens which would give the hero four sevens with a ten kicker.

SpaceAce

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice catch.

gm

[Spladle Master]

You are a 109:1 dog on the flop.

[DrewOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
You are a 109:1 dog on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

YES! My odds keep improving with each post. Next time I am in this situation in my $5-$10 game and the pot is $1090 after the flop, I'll remember that [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[apd138]

Perfect perfect is 989:1 so 1500:1 is not possible.