math question

[johnsy]

what r u the odds of pocket aces(not dealt 3 times in a row) in hold em being cracked 3 times in a row heads up by a flopped flush????]
thanks

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

Very high. 118:1 or so that you flop a flush, 217:1 or so that you get dealt AA. Big nubers x big numbers plus 11, divided by 092180918098234 = not very good chances.

Wait, i forgot to carry the 9.

[scottjack]

i'll give it a shot.

These calculations assume the first player already holds the pocket aces.

The number of regular flushes (not including straight flushes) that do not include the 2 aces in the first players hand = 2*combin(13,5) + 2*combin(12,5) - 36 = 4122
This is any 5 cards from the 13 in the 2 suits not represented by the aces and any 5 cards from the 12 remaining cards in the aces' suits, minus the 36 straight flushes that do not contain the 2 aces.

The number of possible 5-card hands the 2nd player could hold = combin(50,5)= 2118760

The odds of his flopping the flush is therefore = 4122/2118760 = 0.001945478


Since each hand is independent, the individual probabilities can be multiplied to get the probability of their happening concurrently.

(0.001945478)^3

small enough to not worry much about its happening even once, much less 3 times in a row.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

That cant be right. I have had my AA cracked by a flopped flush a few times. Never even twice in a row tho. If you assume you already have aces, and the other player has suited cards (not of either of your suit) it is roughly 118:1 that he flops a flush.

[scottjack]

when you use the 118:1 number, you're assuming that the two suited cards are already in the opponent's hand.

the probability of any flopped 5 cards being a regular flush is .0019654015 (a lot less than 118:1)

All i did was do the same calculation that gets that number, but remove the possibility that either of the two aces, can be part of the flush.

[pfkaok]

Thats not right though, b/c his 2 cards could be of your suit, that just means that you'll have a draw to beat him.... I think you could easily approx. it as 1/4 that he's suited times 1/118 that he flops his flush given that he's suited, so 1/572 would be fairly accurate. Then you could say that approx half those times (little less) that you'll have the appropriate ace you'll have 7 outs (~30%)... So thats about 1/6 of the 1/572, So 1/500 would be a pretty good approx here.

(However I think it'd be slightly higher b/c when somebody calls your PFR its probably more than 1/4 that he's suited)

Sorry, but it is not possible to answer the question.

What kind of table are u playing. How many players per flop? What was the AA raise? What likely are the players to call that one with suited cards?

There are a lot of questions open to answer that problem.

[jimymat]

If your playing on Party Poker its around 75% - 80%. If your on Poker Stars it goes down a little bit to 60%. The odds of AA holding up against 6-8 other players goes down to like 30% or so in a more serious note. Keep raising them preflop though. Its the only way to push out other players and punish them for calling two bets cold.Good luck.