Who here is a pro

[Apocalypse]

i'd still like a person to come with a detailed analysis of why this situation will change. Perhaps its just my monkeybrain, but i see casino's flourish for decades now where all games clearly give negative expectation in all sorts. All stories i've heard so far could just as easily (or even more) be applied for casino's in all of time. I didn't see that "bubble" burst though.. Looking from a gamblers point of view poker is just good fun, since any two cards can win, you can "do stuff" between the first and the last to improve your possible winnings and its a pretty social event.

When i look at the marketingstrategy of pokersites it always seems to pinpoint its focus on sponsoring events like darts, or 8-ball. Probably because most of their target-audience watches those sports. In that case targetaudience implies the lower workingclass and in all fairness the somewhat "mentally challenged": people who love to gamble (a tournament at a local casino where i entered yesterday somewhat verified this point). I dont think they seek to be the new mike dermott but just love the fun of poker and the occasional winnings it can bring chasing for that 2-outer. On the long-term they lose, yeah, but they do that on black-jack, roulette and all things else and that doesn't seem to bother them that much.

Concluding, i just don't have the facts. I'd like to see for instance a diagram of the amounts of different groups based on education, income etc. that watch the WPT and World Series on TV. I don't expect poker to grow as explosive as it does now into infinity or anything. It will stabilise at some point, but i don't see, why this would implode the way people project. But since this does seem to be the common opinion i'd just like to hear a point of view that explains how and why based on some good thorough investigation (somebody must have?). Because my view is some rambling on my own, and probably just as worthless as people who ramble about the burst of the bubble without any factual basis whatsoever. Ok i quit this post now cuz i can't wrap it up [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img],

[David Sklansky]

I didn't say that I didn't think internet poker would last forever. I said I wasn't "counting" on it to last. At this point no one thinking about quitting their job should count on it either.

[chezlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd still like a person to come with a detailed analysis of why this situation will change. Perhaps its just my monkeybrain, but i see casino's flourish for decades now where all games clearly give negative expectation in all sorts. All stories i've heard so far could just as easily (or even more) be applied for casino's in all of time. I didn't see that "bubble" burst though.. Looking from a gamblers point of view poker is just good fun, since any two cards can win, you can "do stuff" between the first and the last to improve your possible winnings and its a pretty social event.


[/ QUOTE ]

Here's a simple view of why the games will get worse:

Assume
1) The number of new players each year is constant and
2) The best players stick around for many years whilst the bad players disappear fairly quickly.

Then each year the proportion of bad players falls and the games get harder.

Its not all doom and gloom because:

1) must become true once the market matures but I think we are some way of that point.

2) may not be true for low and middle limit poker. Its high limit and no limit that is the danger as MM keeps banging on about.

Also many of the better players leave because they get bored or move to higher stakes than we play, and hopefully we are learning by experience and have an advantage on most of the decent players joining after us.

[offTopic]

[ QUOTE ]
I mostly agree with you. I will point out though that I doubt most of the people making $36k online are reporting it all to the IRS (note: I am not endorsing tax evasion, just pointing out the likely truth). Anyone making 36k in a normal office job will be giving a decent chunk of it to the government. This somewhat offsets the fact that the office job has benefits like health insurance that the gambling doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

...assuming the pro gambler doesn't get anything worse than a cold, ever.

[andyfox]

David makes a good point in his latest post in this thread. I'd be wary of quitting my job to play internet poker. Who knows what the political tides will bring? The more publicity internet galmbling/poker gets, the more the politicians will want to do something about it.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
...assuming the pro gambler doesn't get anything worse than a cold, ever.

[/ QUOTE ]
Or that he is covered under his spouse's insurance (very possible). Or that he lives in a country with nationalized health care (maybe we should all move to Canada and play online where it's legal).

[OrangeHeat]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way thousands of people could be making $50,000/yr indefinitely.

[/ QUOTE ]

$112,610,361 - Money wagered in the last 24 Hrs - from pokerpulse.com

Orange

[Equal]

I don't understand why many posters here are all "doom-and-gloom" when it comes to playing online poker professionally. Presumably, some of these posters do play professionally themselves.

1. It's not that hard to make money online. Someone who is capable of attaining a college degree would be able to make at least $20/hr online with 6 months experience, studying, and a little bit of coaching.

2. What's the big deal about a young person spending 6 months, a year, even two years playing poker online? Many of my friends took similar amounts of time off from school for work, travelling, they were just lazy - or even because they couldn't find a job!

3. Yes, it may not last forever. But I do know that corporate jobs WILL BE AROUND FOREVER. Online poker is hot right now, and I think everyone here could agree that the job environment could be better. I say get while the getting's good and use the money as a stepping stone to advancing your life.

[SAV]

"I didn't say that I didn't think internet poker would last forever. I said I wasn't "counting" on it to last. At this point no one thinking about quitting their job should count on it either."

What do you mean, exactly? Do you mean that the internet poker games will get tighter, or ... ?

[bicyclekick]

It's a pretty lucrative idea to somebody in college. I can come out of college with 0 debt, a car and perhaps be well on my way to paying off a mortgage. Not many kids can do that without just leaning on their parents backs. Now it's possible with online poker...

Even if it doesn't last, so many of us have become so much better off because of it.

I also know many older adults that play on the side to pay off their mortgage or something, even though they have a regular job. It seems like that's the way to go for most people.