Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
  #1  
Old 12-25-2005, 05:46 PM
d10 d10 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Ft Campbell, KY
Posts: 313
Default Interesting situation, check my math

I flop an OESD in live play and check it. It's checked around and the turn card is dealt, which completes my straight, but last to act says "I never checked." So according to the rules, the turn card is pulled to the side, flop action is completed, the river card is dealt as the turn, then the original turn card is shuffled back into the deck and another card is dealt. Obviously I was pissed off that my card was returned to the deck because some retard kept hiding his cards and wasn't paying attention, but I started to wonder how this would affect my odds. My odds on the turn are easy enough to figure out, they decrease slightly from 8/47 to 7/46, but the river is a bit more complicated. There are 25 cards left in the deck and I know at least one of them makes my hand, so I put my odds at (1/25)+(7/45)=44/225. So it seems that by the river my chances increase from the standard OESD of 31.45% to 33.25%, so the situation is actually better than if the last to act had been paying attention and protected his action. As the hand turned out, the original turn card came right back out on the river (good job dealer) and I won the pot, but the players and the dealer made comments suggesting that I was retarded for chasing knowing that one of my outs was missing on the turn.
Reply With Quote
 


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:23 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.