KK on button with 3 players remaining

[Lance]

I played a 1-table tournament with some friends this weekend and have been thinking long and hard about this hand.

3 players remaining
Pay out:
1st: 60%
2nd: 30%
3rd: 10%

I'm on the button with T350
BB has T580
SB has T 70
Blinds are 8-16 with an ante of 2

I am dealt red KK

Preflop:
I raise to 75
SB folds
BB re-raises to 150

BB and I play together all the time. He knows that I am a tight aggressive type and takes shots at me. Earlier he relished stealing a pot off me when I missed the flop but bet with an overcard, then folded to his big raise. He flashed 72o and laughed. All in all he is a pretty tricky, loose aggressive opponent.

I am sure I am in the lead right now, and figure there's about a 20% chance he's bluffing outright. I smooth call, willing to chance an Ace on the flop, intending to take a lot of chips from him.

1. Is this a bad idea? Should I just go all-in? I am 95% sure I am way ahead here, and I wanted to collect some chips with my KK. It would be very unusual for him to re-raise me in this spot with AA.



Flop: Q 7 5 rainbow
Pot : 330

No Ace, a great flop for me. BB checks. I have 200 left, and bet 100 of it hoping to get a call giving 4.3:1. BB goes all in.

Wow, didn't see that coming. The pot is now 630, and I have 100 to call. This seems like an automatic call, but I force myself to break it down HOH-style and assign him the following hand probabilities.

AA: 10
QQ: 45
AK: 5
AQ: 30
Bluff: 10 (includes anything like JJ, TT, AJ at this point)

I figure he pretty much knows I am going to call my last 100 chips with those odds, so QQ and AQ seem like favorites. I make QQ the more likely just to be safe. Dan says to always assign 10% to bluffs, and that would definitely apply to the SB. On the other hand, he's got to be pretty certain I'm not folding for my last 100 chips when I'm getting 6.3:1. Given I didn't put him on AA, that means QQ and AQ are his most likely hands.

So my rough chances of winning (with lots of rounding on the chances of an outdraw) are:
.10*.1 + .45*.1 + .05*.9 + .30*.8 + .10*.9 = .41%

This is 6:4, so I'm obviously getting plenty for a call.

2. Any arguments with my analysis? Anybody fold here? Remeber, the SB has only 70 chips, so I'll be in 2nd place by a hair if I do fold.

I call all-in. Results in reply post.