Party 100+9 (whats your line on this tough draw)

A_PLUS · #1 05-31-2005, 11:59 AM

Early in MTT. I have a had a great run of cards, and have 1865$ at the 10/20 level. My image is pretty Laggy, although I have only shown premium hands,I have been in a few large pots.

Villan is in MP, I am MP+1. He has been very active. My last hand with him, he pushed on the turn into a smallish pot.

MP Calls [20]
Hero raises to [100] Ad Kh
BB calls [80]

Flop (310) Td Qd 8d

MP bets 375....

Whats your line?

bestcellar · #2 05-31-2005, 12:02 PM

I couldn't get all my chips in fast enough. Unless he has a set, you are a huge favorite and may even take the pot down. If he calls, you have something like 20 outs

Lloyd · #3 05-31-2005, 12:05 PM

Easy push for me.

A_PLUS · #4 05-31-2005, 12:09 PM

This wasn't necessarily my play, but something that I was discussing with a friend afterwards.

If I am Villan, and I have a set, 2 pair, TPTK. Doesnt a push from another large stack look like a draw? Wouldnt a smooth call look more like a made hand? I think maybe the call-push turn may have the most FE against a made hand (non flush)

A_PLUS · #5 05-31-2005, 12:12 PM

I was more than willing to get all of my chips in at this stage, I figured I was probably close to 50/50. Im not saying pushing was a bad play, but do you think it was the best? If so, could you expalin why you like it better than other options?

blockafor · #6 05-31-2005, 12:17 PM

What's his stack?

A_PLUS · #7 05-31-2005, 12:18 PM

Im sorry, he has me covered by 50 chips

mts · #8 05-31-2005, 12:19 PM

Your draw is a lot better with 2 cards to come.

Let me get this straight, you want to call then push the turn against a made hand?

TITHEAD · #9 05-31-2005, 12:20 PM

Easy Push, So many outs

Lloyd · #10 05-31-2005, 12:21 PM

Most people would not lead out with a bet if they had a set or two pair. That's not to say it's unlikely (and it might be the best way of playing the hand), but it's not the common thing to do. Against top pair (AQ, KQ, QJ) you're a 54-46 favorite. Add in set and 2 pair possibilities and you're a very, very slight dog.

Pushing on the flop might look like a draw, but I think it also looks like a made hand you want to protect like AA or KK. Making a "normal" raise would be to around T1000 which pot commits you. So pushing is not an overbet. What absolutely looks like a draw is when the pot's T300 and you're pushing T2000. That's not the case here.

So for me, I'd much prefer getting my chips in on the flop as the likely favorite than missing the turn and having to push as a 2 to 1 dog.