MLB 4/12 - A lot to discuss

[slogger]

...maybe if they were facing some mediocre team/pitcher, but Peavy is one of the most dominant guys in the game right now. Forget about his brilliant first start against Pittsburgh (6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 W, 0 ER, 10 K) and look at how he's absolutely shut down NL teams over the past year.

More specifically, in his last 5 starts of '04, he recorded 4 wins and averaged 7 IP per start, just over 1 H+BB per inning, and almost 9 Ks per start.

[Tboner7]

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I'm also taking the under on the O's/Rays game. The O's have struggled against young pitchers in the past. I'm thinking this will be a 4-3 type game.

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What young pitchers have they struggled against? How many games are we talkin?

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I don't have the stats, but I watch many O's games and many times when some guy comes up from the minors and starts or just some guy they've never seen before starts, they struggle. Especially lefties. You can check some O's fan boards and they will all tell you the same thing.

Look at the last two games against Oakland this season. That was no coincidence.

[VinnyTheFish]

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Why doesn't Texas fall under your system?
They lost the first game of their series at home.

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It actually does.

I missed it. I had it marked as 1st game of the series.

[mrbaseball]

Prior = Stud

But as we all know Prior also equal gimp.

Prior has HUGE name recognition and HYPE. But the Cubs are still dogs here in the line. Prior is a huge question mark and Peavy actually is a stud. SD should probably be bigger favorite than they are. Besides Prior probably won't go more than 5 even if he is on. He got roughed up in his minor league start. When healthy though he is as good as anyone so I guess he gets the benefit of the doubt? But I agree SD should be even a bigger fav here.

[Tboner7]

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Prior = Stud

But as we all know Prior also equal gimp.

Prior has HUGE name recognition and HYPE. But the Cubs are still dogs here in the line. Prior is a huge question mark and Peavy actually is a stud. SD should probably be bigger favorite than they are. Besides Prior probably won't go more than 5 even if he is on. He got roughed up in his minor league start. When healthy though he is as good as anyone so I guess he gets the benefit of the doubt? But I agree SD should be even a bigger fav here.

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That's why I'm taking the Padres -1.5 and the over (7).

[VinnyTheFish]

This just amazes me. Here are the SD/Chi lines from today:

SD ..... Chi
==== ====
-105 . -115
-108 . -102
-107 . -103
-112 . +102
-114 . -106
-114 . -106
-108 . -102
-109 . -101
-110 . +102
-109 . -101
-108 . -102
-108 . -102
-116 . -104
-111 . -111
-111 . +101
-108 . -102

I got em at -102, but +102 whould have been great!

[DougOzzzz]

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This just amazes me. Here are the SD/Chi lines from today:

SD ..... Chi
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-105 . -115
-108 . -102
-107 . -103
-112 . +102
-114 . -106
-114 . -106
-108 . -102
-109 . -101
-110 . +102
-109 . -101
-108 . -102
-108 . -102
-116 . -104
-111 . -111
-111 . +101
-108 . -102

I got em at -102, but +102 whould have been great!

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I seem to be extremely lucky this year with getting the best lines. I got Chicago at +102. All my picks this year have been within 2 points of the best line. I've had several opportunities to scalp and guarantee myself money. However, most of these "good" picks have ended up losing. Here's hoping this one works out well.

[Tboner7]

Cubs game has been postponed. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[LLXC]

Game canceled and pitcher match up changed.

[Roan]

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I'm also taking the under on the O's/Rays game. The O's have struggled against young pitchers in the past. I'm thinking this will be a 4-3 type game.

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What young pitchers have they struggled against? How many games are we talkin?

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I don't have the stats, but I watch many O's games and many times when some guy comes up from the minors and starts or just some guy they've never seen before starts, they struggle. Especially lefties. You can check some O's fan boards and they will all tell you the same thing.

Look at the last two games against Oakland this season. That was no coincidence.

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This makes no sense, you need an N larger than 2 to rule out coincidence. Some of what you say might have some relevance, ie. they struggle against lefties or they struggle against pitchers whom they see for the first time(regardless of how old), although without you having statistics to back it up, I am hesitant to agree with you on the second point.


I would strongly advise against using fan boards as a source of information which you use to place bets.