The "lifespan" of Online Poker

[webmonarch]

Don't misinterpret what I say. I didn't say that online poker would become extinct. I said "there just simply won't be enough new entrants to make it as profitable as it once was." The games will eventually get much harder for the reasons I stated previously.

Online poker is a very different beast than B&M, as well. Brick and Mortars mostly cater to those on vacation that are there to have fun. Online poker is too, to an extent, but losing $200 every week, as opposed to once every half-year is a big diffference. I agree with you on B&Ms being long-term +EV.

Fish DO run out of money. At some point, they'll decide that enough is enough, and that will happen quicker and quicker as the games get more difficult. Some won't, I agree with that, but there won't be many.

Anyone remember the Internet boom of the late 1990s-early 2000s? Why is it that we see a heck of a lot fewer Internet consultants and webmasters these days? Competition got stiffer, the markets dropped out, and all but the best of the best got forced out. It'll happen in online poker too.

[Triumph36]

But if they stopped offering free drinks and comps, how well do you think those casinos would be doing?

I think a lot of people will just get bored with it.

[slogger]

Along with the idea that new players (new international markets, minors coming of age, technologically chellenged gamblers who decide they've waited long enough to learn hwo to use email, etc.) will always be injected into the system (although maybe not at numbers as high as today) this concept will keep online poker good for the foreseeable future.

10 years from now, perhaps things will have changed (govt regulation is my biggest concern), but there's not much evidence to suggest that they will.

I'll say it again to be clear: Most losers do not process and accept the fact that they are losers. Among the few that do realize it, quite a few will play anyway due to the existence of disposable income and/or decent-paying jobs.

[Six_of_One]

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Online poker is a very different beast than B&M, as well. Brick and Mortars mostly cater to those on vacation that are there to have fun. Online poker is too, to an extent, but losing $200 every week, as opposed to once every half-year is a big diffference. I agree with you on B&Ms being long-term +EV.


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B&M casinos in Vegas may cater mostly to tourists on vacation, but I don't believe that is the case in other parts of the country; certainly not in Los Angeles. The games are filled with mostly regulars, who mostly suck. They come back week after week, in some cases day after day, happily losing, losing, winning, and losing. Well, maybe not happily, but in any case, there they are.

I don't see how bad online poker players will be any different. If they run out of money, they just wait a couple paychecks, and they're back. Very few ever decide that "enough is enough."

[Little Fishy]

man,
screw backgammon!

I wanna see some Cribbage on TV

[Little Fishy]

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C) They fail to comprehend that poker is not like blackjack or roulette, in that it's not all about the luck of the draw

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I wouldn't say blackjack is quite luck of the draw, and roulette is more of a spin.

-little fishy

[Little Fishy]

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3. There are a bunch of "rounders" who feel the need to educate players on their bad play. This is -EV. The increase in these "rounders" means more -EV at the poker table.
As a sidenote, these "rounders" should be sought out and killed.


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are you mental? a lot of players are getting slightly more educated by these so called 'rounders' but the vast majority of information and strategies that they are actualy absorbing is often missplaced, missunderstood, missinturpreted, and missused. For instance, if you tell someone right off the street that they need to be tight and aggressive, what are they gonna do? not play quite as many hands, but they'll more than compensate for that loss of EV by going too far with hands they play.

I posite, that the increase in the partial education of second rate players is actualy a positive EV occurence for the skilled player. this is because it gives the poorer players more confidence to put more $$ on the table without giving them the necessary skills to protect that money.

just a thought

-little fishy

[Dynasty]

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Don't misinterpret what I say. I didn't say that online poker would become extinct. I said "there just simply won't be enough new entrants to make it as profitable as it once was." The games will eventually get much harder for the reasons I stated previously.

Online poker is a very different beast than B&M, as well. Brick and Mortars mostly cater to those on vacation that are there to have fun. Online poker is too, to an extent, but losing $200 every week, as opposed to once every half-year is a big diffference. I agree with you on B&Ms being long-term +EV.

Fish DO run out of money. At some point, they'll decide that enough is enough, and that will happen quicker and quicker as the games get more difficult. Some won't, I agree with that, but there won't be many.

Anyone remember the Internet boom of the late 1990s-early 2000s? Why is it that we see a heck of a lot fewer Internet consultants and webmasters these days? Competition got stiffer, the markets dropped out, and all but the best of the best got forced out. It'll happen in online poker too.

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Do you believe this about other businesses? Do you think that movie theatres will go under because people always walk out of the theatre with less money than they came in with? What about sports (NFL, MLB, NBA)? Bars?

Poker is entertainment for most players. They like to win. But, they don't stop play simply because they lose.

[MRBAA]

Poker is very addictive because even bad players sometimes win. It's the old "partial reinforcement" thing, they get beaten up more often than not, but sometimes they get to hand out the beats. And that's what keeps 'em coming back.

[MicroBob]

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I posite, that the increase in the partial education of second rate players is actualy a positive EV occurence for the skilled player. this is because it gives the poorer players more confidence to put more $$ on the table without giving them the necessary skills to protect that money.

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completely agree.
most people who talk in terms of pot-odds, etc have no clue what they're talking about. The fact that they THINK they've got it all figured out is awesome.


Talked with an older guy who says he has the WPT shows on DVD and he can watch what's happening and make better plays than those guys every time.
The number of people who think this (while ignoring the fact that you DON'T get to see everyone else's cards when you're playing a hand) must be pretty high.

Everyone sees Gus Hansen bluff with 83o and thinks they can do it better and more convincingly than he does.
awesome!!!!


number of states where live gambling is legal AND booming now is signficantly more than 20-25 years ago (Mississippi, Louisiana, Indiana, Illinois, Foxwoods in CT, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minn, Wash, Colo, etc etc) and there is still no shortage of players for all the -EV games out there like roulette, slots, craps, etc etc.
Why we should believe that all the fish will run out of money in poker when they don't seem to in all the other games is beyond me.


Partypoker last night was around 78k players. Don't know if it has topped 80k players yet or not but it seems to be growing all the time.
Pokerstars was at 44k players last night. Just a couple monts ago I thought it was kinda neat that they were regularly higher than 25k players.


On the PPM IV cruise I was sitting next to some guy from Vancouver and he said they just got a poker-room up there.
I asked if it was really booming...he told me that a week ago he was there and the wait-list for the 4/8 game was almost 90 people long.


The WSOP last year had 2600 players. This year I think we're guessing 4k-5k or so. Just 5 years ago you likely never would have believed that even 1000 players was possible.


Was paging through Hellmuth's Bad Beats and stories book in the store...I think he says that the Bicycle's tournament had 31 players in 2001 and is several hundred now.


Even the PPM IV was at 740 players this year. Just 3 years ago they could barely break 100 I think.


And everyone who went on the cruise LOVED it...even those who didn't finish in the money will be likely to try to make it back next year I suspect.


NBC has their heads-up poker coverage starting next month and bringing back the TV advertising of online-poker sites to the american audience has helped a lot too.



It won't continue to grow at this exponential rate certainly. but to think that all the fish will just get tired of losing and will stop playing is nuts. Especially when one considers the nature of the game...every fish has their good run where they decide "ok...all i need to do is play like i was during that streak when I was winning." and they keep trying and trying.

Don't forget....poker is extremely popular with today's teenagers. It's not an old-person's game anymore.

All these 14-19 year-olds who are playing it at home WILL be playing it online and live....and many of them will be truly terrible having only learned how to play from how the guys do it on ESPN.


Our bigger problem might come in the form of some sort of legislation...but it's more and more widely accepted now so I'm not sure whether that is going to happen.
Even though I'm not terribly concerned about it I think this is a far greater danger to online-poker than the risk of all the fishies going broke.