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#1
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Have I made a mistake?
Assume the flop leaves you with 10 outs.
Your probability of improving your hand by the river is: [1 - (37/47)(36/46)] * 100 ~= 38.4% Your probability of improving your hand immediately on the turn is: (10 * 100) / 47 ~= 21.28% After not improving on the turn your probability of improving in the river is: (10 * 100) / 46 ~= 21.74% Why does this math indicate that the probabilty increased for the river draw over the turn draw? |
#2
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Re: Have I made a mistake?
because you've calculated the probability GIVEN THAT you missed on the turn, not the probability of hitting your card on the river regardless what happened on the turn.
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#3
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Re: Have I made a mistake?
Thanks, so the math looks OK to you?
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#4
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Re: Have I made a mistake?
there's one less card in the deck on the river, so the odds of you hitting increases slightly.
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#5
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Re: Have I made a mistake?
Odds of catching at least one of your 10 outs by the river:
1 - C(37,2)/C(47,2) = ~38.4% |
#6
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Re: Have I made a mistake?
Thanks All. For a moment I thought I was crazy. Wait a minute, it may be correct but that doesn't mean I'm sane.
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