44 button party 50

baronzeus · #1 11-17-2005, 10:43 AM

never sat in the party 50 before. (too long of lists always).

villain is Kukavica, was at all of my tables. only read is that he was 18/15 preflop. call down? call and fold UI? 3bet?

Party Poker 50/100 Hold'em (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
6 folds, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises

DeeJ · #2 11-17-2005, 11:16 AM

you're either slightly ahead or way behind. I'd call down (and you have 6 solid outs on the river, too).

#3 11-17-2005, 01:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you're either slightly ahead or way behind. I'd call down (and you have 6 solid outs on the river, too).

[/ QUOTE ]
Looks good to me, theres no way I'm folding 44's in this spot. The instant I'm checkraised on the turn I would yell out enthusiastically "Nice Play!!" and then I would call down like the good monkey I am.

DeathDonkey · #4 11-17-2005, 01:46 PM

Since we aren't folding is there any value to 3 betting for a free showdown unless we improve on the river? Will we really be 4 bet even by aces? Also we'd be happy if he folds a 6 outer.

-DeathDonkey

#5 11-17-2005, 02:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Since we aren't folding is there any value to 3 betting for a free showdown unless we improve on the river? Will we really be 4 bet even by aces? Also we'd be happy if he folds a 6 outer.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a very good point. Generally, if we put our opponent on a bluff the last thing we want to do is raise, but in this case a bluff is very likely to have 6 outs, and if you reraised the turn you could make the villain incorrectly fold this 6 outer even though he has the pot odds to call(this would be wonderful)
But heres the problem I have with this line in this particular situation, Since the villain already has the aggressive initiative in this hand, If he was going to bluff he would simply continue his aggressiveness by betting the turn, especially since the hero has showed no strength in this hand so far and could be folding the turn to a bet for all the villain knows. So I think the probability that the villain is checkraising as a bluff is very low. The texture of the board also supports this given that there is no flushdraw possible thus eliminating many semibluffing hands. So getting approx 7.5-1, I would just call and not 3 bet for a free showdown becuz I think the probabilty of the villain bluffing is too low which also means the chance that the villain will 4 bet goes up, so i would rather cheaply call with my six possible outs, and if i dont improve on the river, Im gonna call partly becuz I wanna show him that hes not gonna run me over and also becuz theres always a chance my read is wrong and the villain was bluffing after all.

DeeJ · #6 11-17-2005, 04:24 PM

actually, there's a small chance that villain has 99 and this ruins 4 of your outs. Still counts as "nearly" 6...

Jeffage · #7 11-17-2005, 04:31 PM

I'd rather raise the flop and call a turn checkraise if no paint hits the board. As played, I think you can go ahead to fold. It's clear he wanted you to bet b/c he knows you have a piece of the board or pair but he can beat that piece with his JJ or whatever. Dump it. But I don't like the flop play.

EDIT: Missed that you had gutshot so I guess you have to call the turn checkraise now. But I still think the key street here was the flop and, had you played it straight, the hand would have been better played.

Jeff

johnnycakes · #8 11-17-2005, 04:35 PM

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I'd rather raise the flop and call a turn checkraise if no paint hits the board. As played, I think you can go ahead to fold.

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Why does raising the flop make such a difference in deciding to call or fold the turn c/r?

Jeffage · #9 11-17-2005, 04:41 PM

Note that when I wrote that, I missed the gutshot draw. But say the turn was a blank. If he checkraises, he wants you to bet on that ragged board so he can raise you (and he knows it's likely you will bet since you peeled the flop). Since he wants you to bet and call his raise, he probably can beat top pair on the board in which case you'd be drawing to two outs. I think when you're villian and you bet with, say, AK on that flop and get called, you either think the guy is peeling or caught a piece. Usually you won't checkraise the turn b/c the person is either going to take a free card with a hand that can outdraw you or he will bet a legitimate hand which can stand your checkraise. I think most people's tendency with big cards OOP on this turn against one player would be to bet again and hope he folds. I think you are looking VERY bad against a typical checkraise here, particularly against a tight player who probably knows you also play tight. Ok, I wrote that fast, hopefully it makes some sense. Back to work here.

Jeff

Jeffage · #10 11-17-2005, 04:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why does raising the flop make such a difference in deciding to call or fold the turn c/r?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you raise the flop, he may checkraise the turn to represent an overpair hoping you fold a smallish pair. If you call the flop, he might think you will raise his turn bet or you're not folding. Then when he checkraises you, it's more likely to be a much stronger hand. It's hard to explain (and I may be wrong), but if someone raises me on that flop after the pre action, I might be less concerned about his holding than if he flat called.

Jeff