Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20

lapoker17 · #1 12-05-2005, 04:47 PM

10/20 live in LA. I have $3700, villain covers. Villain is aggro and kind of tricky, a pro, and generally a dick. Table is 6 handed. We used to play together some when I was much laggier, but I don't know that he remembers, so his view of me is who knows.

I open A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG for $100. Folded to villain in BB who calls.

(Pot $210)

Dream flop of 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
He checks, I bet $140, thinking he may come over the top with a really wide range, but he does not, just calls.

(Pot $490)

Turn 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he checks and I check (we can argue about the turn check, as I don't know that I like it much now).

River A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

He leads really aggressively - like an over the top strong means weak thing - for $400.

Who raises?

AZK · #2 12-05-2005, 04:54 PM

me

neon · #3 12-05-2005, 04:56 PM

Me too, with the plan of folding to a three-bet, I think.

ObnxNole · #4 12-05-2005, 07:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Me too, with the plan of folding to a three-bet, I think.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree.

lapoker17 · #5 12-05-2005, 04:58 PM

Are you expecting calls from 97? A4? AK?

He's a good player.

AZK · #6 12-05-2005, 05:08 PM

If this hand were reversed, would you call a river raise in this situation with two pair?

lapoker17 · #7 12-05-2005, 05:15 PM

Against him yes, against me, no.

neon · #8 12-05-2005, 07:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Are you expecting calls from 97? A4? AK?

He's a good player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Expecting calls from 97, A4, 43 and perhaps AK . . .

But it really sounds as if this guy's pretty apt to bluff push w/ busted diamonds or air to represent 56, so I guess it comes down to if you think he's calling you w/ a hand you beat often enough to make a river raise worth it vs. the risk that he bluffs you out w/ a worse hand.

Seems pretty close against this guy. Maybe the idea of folding to a three-bet is a bad idea, because of the possibility he's going to try to push you around? So maybe it's better to either call his river bet or raise and call a push?

Also, the "strength" he shows kinda concerns me that he might have 56 and is looking for a raise from you. Kinda seems like a reverse tell, no?

Good post.

lapoker17 · #9 12-05-2005, 07:28 PM

This is a really good post Neon, and is why I think the hand interesting. I don't know that the choices are call or raise and fold to a 3 bet - I think they may be call or raise and CALL a 3 bet as you suggest.

I also think the dynamics of my turn check in combination with his crazy reverse tell thing makes the decision more interesting still.

FoxwoodsFiend · #10 12-05-2005, 04:59 PM

The only reason that I wouldn't raise here would be that if I show that I'm not raising top two on the river in this spot, I'd be able to bluff him off any river I feel like unless he has the nuts. That just doesn't seem worth the extra $1K you could make here.